The contest for first place in the Federal District Senate election remains tightly balanced, with recent polls showing incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) edging or tying Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) in the low-to-mid 40s while other contenders such as Erika Kokay (PT) trail in the 20s-30s range. Michelle’s strong name recognition and evangelical base keep her competitive despite recording the highest rejection levels in surveys, while Leila benefits from incumbency and broad name familiarity from her athletic background. Vote fragmentation across right-leaning names including Bia Kicis and left-leaning options sustains the narrow margins, and trader pricing reflects this uncertainty with leading probabilities clustered near 45-50%. Upcoming campaign events, endorsements, or shifts in rejection dynamics ahead of the October 4 first round could create separation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMichelle Bolsonaro 32%
Tiago 24%
Guto Felício dos Santos 22%
Marley 22%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
44%
Tiago
24%
Guto Felício dos Santos
22%
Marley
22%
Sebastião Coelho
21%
Zanata
21%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
21%
Avenir Rosa
20%
Erika Kokay
19%
Bia Kicis
19%
Leila do Vôlei
19%
Ronaldo Fonseca
18%
David Horn
18%
Michelle Bolsonaro 32%
Tiago 24%
Guto Felício dos Santos 22%
Marley 22%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 4, 2026
Michelle Bolsonaro
$20 Wol.
44%
Tiago
$0 Wol.
24%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$0 Wol.
22%
Marley
$0 Wol.
22%
Sebastião Coelho
$0 Wol.
21%
Zanata
$0 Wol.
21%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$0 Wol.
21%
Avenir Rosa
$0 Wol.
20%
Erika Kokay
$0 Wol.
19%
Bia Kicis
$0 Wol.
19%
Leila do Vôlei
$0 Wol.
19%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$0 Wol.
18%
David Horn
$0 Wol.
18%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The contest for first place in the Federal District Senate election remains tightly balanced, with recent polls showing incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) edging or tying Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) in the low-to-mid 40s while other contenders such as Erika Kokay (PT) trail in the 20s-30s range. Michelle’s strong name recognition and evangelical base keep her competitive despite recording the highest rejection levels in surveys, while Leila benefits from incumbency and broad name familiarity from her athletic background. Vote fragmentation across right-leaning names including Bia Kicis and left-leaning options sustains the narrow margins, and trader pricing reflects this uncertainty with leading probabilities clustered near 45-50%. Upcoming campaign events, endorsements, or shifts in rejection dynamics ahead of the October 4 first round could create separation.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$20Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The contest for first place in the Federal District Senate election remains tightly balanced, with recent polls showing incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) edging or tying Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) in the low-to-mid 40s while other contenders such as Erika Kokay (PT) trail in the 20s-30s range. Michelle’s strong name recognition and evangelical base keep her competitive despite recording the highest rejection levels in surveys, while Leila benefits from incumbency and broad name familiarity from her athletic background. Vote fragmentation across right-leaning names including Bia Kicis and left-leaning options sustains the narrow margins, and trader pricing reflects this uncertainty with leading probabilities clustered near 45-50%. Upcoming campaign events, endorsements, or shifts in rejection dynamics ahead of the October 4 first round could create separation.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Wolumen
$20Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The contest for first place in the Federal District Senate election remains tightly balanced, with recent polls showing incumbent Leila do Vôlei (PDT) edging or tying Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) in the low-to-mid 40s while other contenders such as Erika Kokay (PT) trail in the 20s-30s range. Michelle’s strong name recognition and evangelical base keep her competitive despite recording the highest rejection levels in surveys, while Leila benefits from incumbency and broad name familiarity from her athletic background. Vote fragmentation across right-leaning names including Bia Kicis and left-leaning options sustains the narrow margins, and trader pricing reflects this uncertainty with leading probabilities clustered near 45-50%. Upcoming campaign events, endorsements, or shifts in rejection dynamics ahead of the October 4 first round could create separation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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