Current forecasts from meteorological agencies align closely with the 99% market-implied probability for a 24°C minimum in Tokyo on August 5, reflecting typical early-August climatology of overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy, humid conditions with highs near 32–34°C. Model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns and no significant cool-air advection or enhanced cloud cover to depress temperatures further, consistent with historical baseline minima around 24°C for the date. Trader positioning incorporates real-time observational data and ensemble runs projecting stable boundary-layer conditions overnight. A rapid shift in regional pressure gradients or unforecasted precipitation could still alter the outcome before official reporting.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?
24°C 99.0%
23°C <1%
22°C <1%
20°C <1%
$12,232 Wol.
$12,232 Wol.
Aug 5, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
99%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 99.0%
23°C <1%
22°C <1%
20°C <1%
$12,232 Wol.
$12,232 Wol.
Aug 5, 2026
18°C or below
$297 Wol.
<1%
19°C
$461 Wol.
<1%
20°C
$600 Wol.
<1%
21°C
$604 Wol.
<1%
22°C
$2,197 Wol.
1%
23°C
$1,670 Wol.
1%
24°C
$2,388 Wol.
99%
25°C
$2,247 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$912 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$497 Wol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$359 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological agencies align closely with the 99% market-implied probability for a 24°C minimum in Tokyo on August 5, reflecting typical early-August climatology of overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy, humid conditions with highs near 32–34°C. Model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns and no significant cool-air advection or enhanced cloud cover to depress temperatures further, consistent with historical baseline minima around 24°C for the date. Trader positioning incorporates real-time observational data and ensemble runs projecting stable boundary-layer conditions overnight. A rapid shift in regional pressure gradients or unforecasted precipitation could still alter the outcome before official reporting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Wolumen
$12,232Data zakończenia
Aug 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological agencies align closely with the 99% market-implied probability for a 24°C minimum in Tokyo on August 5, reflecting typical early-August climatology of overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy, humid conditions with highs near 32–34°C. Model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns and no significant cool-air advection or enhanced cloud cover to depress temperatures further, consistent with historical baseline minima around 24°C for the date. Trader positioning incorporates real-time observational data and ensemble runs projecting stable boundary-layer conditions overnight. A rapid shift in regional pressure gradients or unforecasted precipitation could still alter the outcome before official reporting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$12,232Data zakończenia
Aug 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from meteorological agencies align closely with the 99% market-implied probability for a 24°C minimum in Tokyo on August 5, reflecting typical early-August climatology of overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy, humid conditions with highs near 32–34°C. Model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns and no significant cool-air advection or enhanced cloud cover to depress temperatures further, consistent with historical baseline minima around 24°C for the date. Trader positioning incorporates real-time observational data and ensemble runs projecting stable boundary-layer conditions overnight. A rapid shift in regional pressure gradients or unforecasted precipitation could still alter the outcome before official reporting.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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