Persistent rain and northerly winds from a stalled autumn frontal system are suppressing daytime heating and promoting overnight cooling across the Kanto region, positioning 19–21°C as the leading range for Tokyo’s daily minimum on September 16. Multiple forecast models, including those referenced by the Japan Meteorological Agency, show overnight lows near 19°C under overcast skies with high humidity and sustained NNE flow, consistent with historical patterns for mid-September cool surges. Trader consensus reflected in the 43.5% implied probability for 20°C and 29.5% for 21°C aligns with this model agreement, though minor shifts in frontal timing or wind strength could alter the exact minimum before resolution. Updated JMA guidance and next model runs will provide the next key data points.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
20°C 44%
21°C 22%
19°C 20%
18°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 16, 2026
16°C or below
2%
17°C
8%
18°C
10%
19°C
20%
20°C
44%
21°C
22%
22°C
9%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
2%
26°C or higher
1%
20°C 44%
21°C 22%
19°C 20%
18°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 16, 2026
16°C or below
$30 Wol.
2%
17°C
$12 Wol.
8%
18°C
$12 Wol.
10%
19°C
$28 Wol.
20%
20°C
$166 Wol.
44%
21°C
$202 Wol.
22%
22°C
$52 Wol.
9%
23°C
$0 Wol.
2%
24°C
$0 Wol.
2%
25°C
$0 Wol.
2%
26°C or higher
$0 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northerly winds from a stalled autumn frontal system are suppressing daytime heating and promoting overnight cooling across the Kanto region, positioning 19–21°C as the leading range for Tokyo’s daily minimum on September 16. Multiple forecast models, including those referenced by the Japan Meteorological Agency, show overnight lows near 19°C under overcast skies with high humidity and sustained NNE flow, consistent with historical patterns for mid-September cool surges. Trader consensus reflected in the 43.5% implied probability for 20°C and 29.5% for 21°C aligns with this model agreement, though minor shifts in frontal timing or wind strength could alter the exact minimum before resolution. Updated JMA guidance and next model runs will provide the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$502Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent rain and northerly winds from a stalled autumn frontal system are suppressing daytime heating and promoting overnight cooling across the Kanto region, positioning 19–21°C as the leading range for Tokyo’s daily minimum on September 16. Multiple forecast models, including those referenced by the Japan Meteorological Agency, show overnight lows near 19°C under overcast skies with high humidity and sustained NNE flow, consistent with historical patterns for mid-September cool surges. Trader consensus reflected in the 43.5% implied probability for 20°C and 29.5% for 21°C aligns with this model agreement, though minor shifts in frontal timing or wind strength could alter the exact minimum before resolution. Updated JMA guidance and next model runs will provide the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$502Data zakończenia
Sep 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent rain and northerly winds from a stalled autumn frontal system are suppressing daytime heating and promoting overnight cooling across the Kanto region, positioning 19–21°C as the leading range for Tokyo’s daily minimum on September 16. Multiple forecast models, including those referenced by the Japan Meteorological Agency, show overnight lows near 19°C under overcast skies with high humidity and sustained NNE flow, consistent with historical patterns for mid-September cool surges. Trader consensus reflected in the 43.5% implied probability for 20°C and 29.5% for 21°C aligns with this model agreement, though minor shifts in frontal timing or wind strength could alter the exact minimum before resolution. Updated JMA guidance and next model runs will provide the next key data points.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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