The near-certain trader consensus on no state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, stems from the complete absence of any active bills, special sessions, or organized campaigns advancing such measures in the final weeks before the deadline. State lawmakers across all 50 states remain focused on routine legislative business, budget negotiations, and preparations for the November 2026 elections rather than fringe constitutional questions settled by Supreme Court precedent since the Civil War. No major party caucus or leadership has signaled support, and historical patterns show secession resolutions rarely advance even in states with vocal independence movements. While an unforeseen floor vote in a short session remains theoretically possible before the cutoff, the compressed timeline and lack of procedural momentum make such an outcome highly improbable under current conditions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAlguma legislatura estadual dos EUA vota a secessão até 30 de junho de 2026?
Alguma legislatura estadual dos EUA vota a secessão até 30 de junho de 2026?
Sim
$39,508 Vol.
$39,508 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$39,508 Vol.
$39,508 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The near-certain trader consensus on no state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, stems from the complete absence of any active bills, special sessions, or organized campaigns advancing such measures in the final weeks before the deadline. State lawmakers across all 50 states remain focused on routine legislative business, budget negotiations, and preparations for the November 2026 elections rather than fringe constitutional questions settled by Supreme Court precedent since the Civil War. No major party caucus or leadership has signaled support, and historical patterns show secession resolutions rarely advance even in states with vocal independence movements. While an unforeseen floor vote in a short session remains theoretically possible before the cutoff, the compressed timeline and lack of procedural momentum make such an outcome highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ET
Volume
$39,508Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The near-certain trader consensus on no state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, stems from the complete absence of any active bills, special sessions, or organized campaigns advancing such measures in the final weeks before the deadline. State lawmakers across all 50 states remain focused on routine legislative business, budget negotiations, and preparations for the November 2026 elections rather than fringe constitutional questions settled by Supreme Court precedent since the Civil War. No major party caucus or leadership has signaled support, and historical patterns show secession resolutions rarely advance even in states with vocal independence movements. While an unforeseen floor vote in a short session remains theoretically possible before the cutoff, the compressed timeline and lack of procedural momentum make such an outcome highly improbable under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$39,508Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus on no state legislature voting on secession by June 30, 2026, stems from the complete absence of any active bills, special sessions, or organized campaigns advancing such measures in the final weeks before the deadline. State lawmakers across all 50 states remain focused on routine legislative business, budget negotiations, and preparations for the November 2026 elections rather than fringe constitutional questions settled by Supreme Court precedent since the Civil War. No major party caucus or leadership has signaled support, and historical patterns show secession resolutions rarely advance even in states with vocal independence movements. While an unforeseen floor vote in a short session remains theoretically possible before the cutoff, the compressed timeline and lack of procedural momentum make such an outcome highly improbable under current conditions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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