The Bank of Russia’s September 11, 2026 meeting occurs against a backdrop of steady 6% headline inflation, elevated fuel-driven price pressures from refinery disruptions, and core measures near 5.2%. Following the July cut to 14%, the central bank’s communications stress the need for a smoother easing path given sticky expectations, one-off supply shocks, and expansionary fiscal policy. Economic data show moderating growth, with civilian sectors in contraction and revised GDP forecasts near zero, creating competing pressures for further modest easing. Trader positioning favoring no change at 62.5% reflects the balance between these disinflation risks and the central bank’s emphasis on data-dependent caution, while the 37.5% probability of a decrease incorporates signals from political commentary favoring gradual cuts. An increase remains remote at 1.3% given the recent downward trajectory in the key rate.