Lula's position as incumbent president and narrow leads in recent Amapá-specific polling, including a Quaest survey showing 36% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 33%, underpin trader consensus for a strong first-round showing there. National aggregates and early campaign dynamics, with free TV and radio time beginning in late August, reinforce perceptions of Lula's edge in the northern state amid a competitive field. Flávio Bolsonaro trails as the main challenger from the PL, drawing support from right-leaning voters, while minor candidates like Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others register low single digits and appear unlikely to overtake the top two. Local factors such as alliances tied to the concurrent gubernatorial race and debates over resource development in the Amazon region add context but have not shifted the implied probabilities substantially since polling resumed.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLula 69%
Flavio Bolsonaro 25%
Pablo Marçal 3.6%
Hertz Dias 2.7%
$10,498 Vol.
$10,498 Vol.
4 out 2026
Lula
69%
Flavio Bolsonaro
25%
Pablo Marçal
4%
Hertz Dias
3%
Rui Costa Pimenta
2%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 69%
Flavio Bolsonaro 25%
Pablo Marçal 3.6%
Hertz Dias 2.7%
$10,498 Vol.
$10,498 Vol.
4 out 2026
Lula
$2,558 Vol.
69%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,291 Vol.
25%
Pablo Marçal
$1,062 Vol.
4%
Hertz Dias
$873 Vol.
3%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$578 Vol.
2%
Edmilson Costa
$281 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$295 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$565 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$562 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$499 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$635 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$720 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$579 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's position as incumbent president and narrow leads in recent Amapá-specific polling, including a Quaest survey showing 36% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 33%, underpin trader consensus for a strong first-round showing there. National aggregates and early campaign dynamics, with free TV and radio time beginning in late August, reinforce perceptions of Lula's edge in the northern state amid a competitive field. Flávio Bolsonaro trails as the main challenger from the PL, drawing support from right-leaning voters, while minor candidates like Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others register low single digits and appear unlikely to overtake the top two. Local factors such as alliances tied to the concurrent gubernatorial race and debates over resource development in the Amazon region add context but have not shifted the implied probabilities substantially since polling resumed.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$10,498Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's position as incumbent president and narrow leads in recent Amapá-specific polling, including a Quaest survey showing 36% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 33%, underpin trader consensus for a strong first-round showing there. National aggregates and early campaign dynamics, with free TV and radio time beginning in late August, reinforce perceptions of Lula's edge in the northern state amid a competitive field. Flávio Bolsonaro trails as the main challenger from the PL, drawing support from right-leaning voters, while minor candidates like Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others register low single digits and appear unlikely to overtake the top two. Local factors such as alliances tied to the concurrent gubernatorial race and debates over resource development in the Amazon region add context but have not shifted the implied probabilities substantially since polling resumed.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,498Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula's position as incumbent president and narrow leads in recent Amapá-specific polling, including a Quaest survey showing 36% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 33%, underpin trader consensus for a strong first-round showing there. National aggregates and early campaign dynamics, with free TV and radio time beginning in late August, reinforce perceptions of Lula's edge in the northern state amid a competitive field. Flávio Bolsonaro trails as the main challenger from the PL, drawing support from right-leaning voters, while minor candidates like Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and others register low single digits and appear unlikely to overtake the top two. Local factors such as alliances tied to the concurrent gubernatorial race and debates over resource development in the Amazon region add context but have not shifted the implied probabilities substantially since polling resumed.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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