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Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin

icon for Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin
Eleições·Eleições Mundiais

Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin

Daniel Ennis 70%

Janice Boylan 22.1%

Gerry Hutch 9.2%

Janet Horner 3.2%

Polymarket

$1,087,311 Vol.

Daniel Ennis 70%

Janice Boylan 22.1%

Gerry Hutch 9.2%

Janet Horner 3.2%

Polymarket

$1,087,311 Vol.

Daniel Ennis

$33,324 Vol.

70%

Janice Boylan

$17,884 Vol.

22%

Gerry Hutch

$508,746 Vol.

9%

Janet Horner

$13,848 Vol.

3%

Ray McAdam

$34,450 Vol.

2%

Malachy Steenson

$21,001 Vol.

1%

Gillian Sherratt

$182,749 Vol.

1%

Ian Noel Smyth

$13,515 Vol.

<1%

Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin

$53,116 Vol.

<1%

Séamas McGrattan

$9,470 Vol.

<1%

Mary Fitzpatrick

$45,266 Vol.

<1%

John Stephens

$153,944 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Recent polling for the May 22 by-election shows Sinn Féin candidate Janice Boylan leading first-preference support at 21 percent, followed by Social Democrats contender Daniel Ennis on 18 percent and independent Gerry Hutch on 14 percent. Market pricing for Ennis as the clear frontrunner stems from Ireland’s single transferable vote system, where he stands to receive substantial transfers from eliminated left-leaning candidates including those from Labour, the Greens, and People Before Profit. Hutch’s independent run and Boylan’s narrower transfer path keep their implied probabilities lower, while trailing contenders such as Ray McAdam and Janet Horner face steeper elimination risks. The race remains sensitive to final-week canvassing and voter turnout in this multi-candidate contest.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$1,087,311
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).Recent polling for the May 22 by-election shows Sinn Féin candidate Janice Boylan leading first-preference support at 21 percent, followed by Social Democrats contender Daniel Ennis on 18 percent and independent Gerry Hutch on 14 percent. Market pricing for Ennis as the clear frontrunner stems from Ireland’s single transferable vote system, where he stands to receive substantial transfers from eliminated left-leaning candidates including those from Labour, the Greens, and People Before Profit. Hutch’s independent run and Boylan’s narrower transfer path keep their implied probabilities lower, while trailing contenders such as Ray McAdam and Janet Horner face steeper elimination risks. The race remains sensitive to final-week canvassing and voter turnout in this multi-candidate contest.

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.

If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Volume
$1,087,311
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Daniel Ennis" at 70%, followed by "Janice Boylan" at 22%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin" has generated $1.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin" is "Daniel Ennis" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Janice Boylan" at 22%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da By-Election Central de Dublin" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.