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Eleições·Médio Oriente

Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano

icon for Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano
Eleições·Médio Oriente

Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano

Forças Libanesas (FL) 4.0%

Movimento Amal (Amal) 3.4%

Movimento Marada (MM) 2.4%

ReLebanon 2.1%

Polymarket

$523,617 Vol.

Forças Libanesas (FL) 4.0%

Movimento Amal (Amal) 3.4%

Movimento Marada (MM) 2.4%

ReLebanon 2.1%

Polymarket

$523,617 Vol.

Forças Libanesas (FL)

$157,850 Vol.

4%

Movimento Amal (Amal)

$53,564 Vol.

3%

Movimento Marada (MM)

$2,927 Vol.

2%

ReLebanon

$2,690 Vol.

2%

Partido Taqaddom

$5,441 Vol.

1%

Partido da União (UP)

$3,000 Vol.

1%

Partido Nacional Liberal (PNL)

$4,054 Vol.

1%

Grupo Islâmico (GI)

$3,334 Vol.

1%

Associação de Projetos de Caridade Islâmica (ICPA)

$3,648 Vol.

1%

Organização Nasserista Popular (PNO)

$3,487 Vol.

1%

Aliança Watani (Watani)

$3,671 Vol.

1%

Partido Kataeb (Kataeb)

$3,996 Vol.

1%

Hezbollah (Hezb)

$43,649 Vol.

1%

Movimento Patriótico Livre (FPM)

$73,313 Vol.

<1%

Partido do Diálogo Nacional (PDN)

$41,888 Vol.

<1%

Federação Revolucionária Armênia (ARF)

$5,105 Vol.

<1%

Partido Mada (Mada)

$24,363 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Partido Social-Democrata (Lana)

$4,440 Vol.

<1%

Partido Socialista Progressista (PSP)

$47,456 Vol.

<1%

Partido Socialista Árabe Ba'ath no Líbano (Ba'ath)

$6,562 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$3,329 Vol.

<1%

Movimento de Independência (IM)

$3,135 Vol.

<1%

Movimento Dignidade (MD)

$22,716 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Parliament's March vote to postpone parliamentary elections from May 2026 to 2028—amid the Israel-Hezbollah war, mass displacement, and humanitarian crisis—has fueled extreme fragmentation in trader consensus, with no outcome exceeding 4% implied probability in this wide-open field under Lebanon's confessional proportional representation system. Lebanese Forces edges ahead due to its strong Christian base and anti-Hezbollah positioning, amplified by the group's ceasefire violations and military setbacks. Amal Movement holds Shia strongholds via Speaker Berri's influence, while Marada leverages Maronite ties. Consolidation could hinge on cross-sectarian coalitions like recent Sunni realignments, diaspora voter turnout, presidential vacancy resolution, and de-escalation enabling voter mobilization.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$523,617
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Parliament's March vote to postpone parliamentary elections from May 2026 to 2028—amid the Israel-Hezbollah war, mass displacement, and humanitarian crisis—has fueled extreme fragmentation in trader consensus, with no outcome exceeding 4% implied probability in this wide-open field under Lebanon's confessional proportional representation system. Lebanese Forces edges ahead due to its strong Christian base and anti-Hezbollah positioning, amplified by the group's ceasefire violations and military setbacks. Amal Movement holds Shia strongholds via Speaker Berri's influence, while Marada leverages Maronite ties. Consolidation could hinge on cross-sectarian coalitions like recent Sunni realignments, diaspora voter turnout, presidential vacancy resolution, and de-escalation enabling voter mobilization.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$523,617
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Forças Libanesas (FL)" at 4%, followed by "Movimento Amal (Amal)" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" has generated $523.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" is "Forças Libanesas (FL)" at just 4%, with "Movimento Amal (Amal)" close behind at 3%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor das Eleições Parlamentares do Líbano" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.