Ongoing US and allied military operations in the 2026 Iran conflict have targeted Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and communications infrastructure along the Strait of Hormuz, including strikes on Greater Tunb and disruptions affecting islands such as Kharg and Qeshm, to counter IRGC efforts to restrict shipping. Farsi Island, a key IRGC naval outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian governmental and military control amid these actions. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of any shift, given Iran's fortified positions, the focus on degradation strikes rather than territorial occupation, and ongoing diplomatic pressures for de-escalation. Potential catalysts include further escalation in naval incidents, expanded coalition enforcement of free navigation, or negotiated ceasefires that could alter operational dynamics before market resolution dates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Ilha Farsi não está mais sob o controle iraniano por...?
A Ilha Farsi não está mais sob o controle iraniano por...?
$170,157 Vol.
31 ago 2026
31 de agosto
<1%
$170,157 Vol.
31 de agosto
$161,265 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US and allied military operations in the 2026 Iran conflict have targeted Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and communications infrastructure along the Strait of Hormuz, including strikes on Greater Tunb and disruptions affecting islands such as Kharg and Qeshm, to counter IRGC efforts to restrict shipping. Farsi Island, a key IRGC naval outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian governmental and military control amid these actions. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of any shift, given Iran's fortified positions, the focus on degradation strikes rather than territorial occupation, and ongoing diplomatic pressures for de-escalation. Potential catalysts include further escalation in naval incidents, expanded coalition enforcement of free navigation, or negotiated ceasefires that could alter operational dynamics before market resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volume
$170,157Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US and allied military operations in the 2026 Iran conflict have targeted Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and communications infrastructure along the Strait of Hormuz, including strikes on Greater Tunb and disruptions affecting islands such as Kharg and Qeshm, to counter IRGC efforts to restrict shipping. Farsi Island, a key IRGC naval outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian governmental and military control amid these actions. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of any shift, given Iran's fortified positions, the focus on degradation strikes rather than territorial occupation, and ongoing diplomatic pressures for de-escalation. Potential catalysts include further escalation in naval incidents, expanded coalition enforcement of free navigation, or negotiated ceasefires that could alter operational dynamics before market resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$170,157Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US and allied military operations in the 2026 Iran conflict have targeted Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and communications infrastructure along the Strait of Hormuz, including strikes on Greater Tunb and disruptions affecting islands such as Kharg and Qeshm, to counter IRGC efforts to restrict shipping. Farsi Island, a key IRGC naval outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian governmental and military control amid these actions. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of any shift, given Iran's fortified positions, the focus on degradation strikes rather than territorial occupation, and ongoing diplomatic pressures for de-escalation. Potential catalysts include further escalation in naval incidents, expanded coalition enforcement of free navigation, or negotiated ceasefires that could alter operational dynamics before market resolution dates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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