Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models indicate Istanbul’s May 19 high will likely fall between 20–22 °C, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Mid-May conditions feature moderate southerly flow across the Sea of Marmara, where sea-surface temperatures near 17 °C limit rapid daytime warming while light winds and variable cloud cover introduce small uncertainties in peak heating. This setup matches climatological norms for the period, when average highs reach approximately 21 °C, keeping probabilities for extremes below 5 percent. Traders are therefore focused on the narrow window between slight model spread and subtle changes in afternoon insolation expected in the next 48 hours.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Istambul em 19 de maio?
Temperatura mais alta em Istambul em 19 de maio?
21°C 23%
22°C 22%
20°C 19%
24°C 14%
NOVO
NOVO
19 mai 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C
15%
20°C
19%
21°C
23%
22°C
22%
23°C
4%
24°C
12%
25°C
3%
26°C or higher
2%
21°C 23%
22°C 22%
20°C 19%
24°C 14%
NOVO
NOVO
19 mai 2026
16°C or below
$55 Vol.
1%
17°C
$43 Vol.
2%
18°C
$30 Vol.
1%
19°C
$39 Vol.
15%
20°C
$0 Vol.
19%
21°C
$0 Vol.
23%
22°C
$0 Vol.
22%
23°C
$100 Vol.
4%
24°C
$202 Vol.
12%
25°C
$39 Vol.
3%
26°C or higher
$44 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models indicate Istanbul’s May 19 high will likely fall between 20–22 °C, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Mid-May conditions feature moderate southerly flow across the Sea of Marmara, where sea-surface temperatures near 17 °C limit rapid daytime warming while light winds and variable cloud cover introduce small uncertainties in peak heating. This setup matches climatological norms for the period, when average highs reach approximately 21 °C, keeping probabilities for extremes below 5 percent. Traders are therefore focused on the narrow window between slight model spread and subtle changes in afternoon insolation expected in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$552Data de Término
19 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models indicate Istanbul’s May 19 high will likely fall between 20–22 °C, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Mid-May conditions feature moderate southerly flow across the Sea of Marmara, where sea-surface temperatures near 17 °C limit rapid daytime warming while light winds and variable cloud cover introduce small uncertainties in peak heating. This setup matches climatological norms for the period, when average highs reach approximately 21 °C, keeping probabilities for extremes below 5 percent. Traders are therefore focused on the narrow window between slight model spread and subtle changes in afternoon insolation expected in the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$552Data de Término
19 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models indicate Istanbul’s May 19 high will likely fall between 20–22 °C, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Mid-May conditions feature moderate southerly flow across the Sea of Marmara, where sea-surface temperatures near 17 °C limit rapid daytime warming while light winds and variable cloud cover introduce small uncertainties in peak heating. This setup matches climatological norms for the period, when average highs reach approximately 21 °C, keeping probabilities for extremes below 5 percent. Traders are therefore focused on the narrow window between slight model spread and subtle changes in afternoon insolation expected in the next 48 hours.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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