Current Central Weather Administration forecasts project a daytime high of 28–29°C in Taipei tomorrow under partly cloudy skies with limited afternoon convection, placing the market-implied probability tightly clustered between 29°C and 31°C. This positioning reflects the subtropical ridge maintaining warm advection from the south while sea-surface temperatures in the Taiwan Strait hover near seasonal norms of 26–27°C, limiting rapid intensification. Minor model spread between GFS and ECMWF runs centers on the exact timing and coverage of any showers, which could suppress the maximum by 1–2°C or allow brief clearing that pushes readings to 31°C. Historical May maxima at Songshan Airport average 28–30°C, underscoring how small differences in boundary-layer moisture and insolation will determine the final outcome.