Recent April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, beating consensus forecasts of 55,000–65,000 yet marking a clear step down from March’s 185,000 gain and leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.3 percent. This mixed print, combined with decelerating job openings, tariff-related uncertainty, and accelerating AI-driven productivity shifts, has left traders divided on May outcomes. The near-even split between the 0–50k and 150–200k brackets reflects competing views on whether labor-market cooling will intensify or give way to a rebound ahead of the June 5 release. Market-implied odds continue to price in substantial dispersion around the consensus range of 70,000–100,000, underscoring the sensitivity of positioning to incoming data on claims, wage growth, and sector-specific hiring trends.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHow many jobs added in May?
How many jobs added in May?
100k – 150k 41%
150k – 200k 30%
200k+ 22%
50k – 100k 22%
NOVO
NOVO
5 jun 2026
<0
15%
0 – 50k
32%
50k – 100k
17%
100k – 150k
28%
150k – 200k
30%
200k+
22%
100k – 150k 41%
150k – 200k 30%
200k+ 22%
50k – 100k 22%
NOVO
NOVO
5 jun 2026
<0
$138 Vol.
15%
0 – 50k
$75 Vol.
32%
50k – 100k
$60 Vol.
17%
100k – 150k
$74 Vol.
28%
150k – 200k
$38 Vol.
30%
200k+
$38 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, beating consensus forecasts of 55,000–65,000 yet marking a clear step down from March’s 185,000 gain and leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.3 percent. This mixed print, combined with decelerating job openings, tariff-related uncertainty, and accelerating AI-driven productivity shifts, has left traders divided on May outcomes. The near-even split between the 0–50k and 150–200k brackets reflects competing views on whether labor-market cooling will intensify or give way to a rebound ahead of the June 5 release. Market-implied odds continue to price in substantial dispersion around the consensus range of 70,000–100,000, underscoring the sensitivity of positioning to incoming data on claims, wage growth, and sector-specific hiring trends.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Mercado Aberto: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volume
$424Data de Término
5 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, beating consensus forecasts of 55,000–65,000 yet marking a clear step down from March’s 185,000 gain and leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.3 percent. This mixed print, combined with decelerating job openings, tariff-related uncertainty, and accelerating AI-driven productivity shifts, has left traders divided on May outcomes. The near-even split between the 0–50k and 150–200k brackets reflects competing views on whether labor-market cooling will intensify or give way to a rebound ahead of the June 5 release. Market-implied odds continue to price in substantial dispersion around the consensus range of 70,000–100,000, underscoring the sensitivity of positioning to incoming data on claims, wage growth, and sector-specific hiring trends.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Volume
$424Data de Término
5 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, beating consensus forecasts of 55,000–65,000 yet marking a clear step down from March’s 185,000 gain and leaving the unemployment rate steady at 4.3 percent. This mixed print, combined with decelerating job openings, tariff-related uncertainty, and accelerating AI-driven productivity shifts, has left traders divided on May outcomes. The near-even split between the 0–50k and 150–200k brackets reflects competing views on whether labor-market cooling will intensify or give way to a rebound ahead of the June 5 release. Market-implied odds continue to price in substantial dispersion around the consensus range of 70,000–100,000, underscoring the sensitivity of positioning to incoming data on claims, wage growth, and sector-specific hiring trends.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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