Trader consensus strongly favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI ≥4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers, criteria met only rarely on a global scale with a historical average of roughly 0.6 such events annually. Recent weekly reports note elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none of which have produced sufficient ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge and monitoring updates through year-end remain the key variables that could shift these odds if a major system escalates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantas grandes erupções vulcânicas (vei ≥4) em 2026?
Quantas grandes erupções vulcânicas (vei ≥4) em 2026?
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,772 Vol.
$1,079,772 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0
61%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,772 Vol.
$1,079,772 Vol.
31 dez 2026
0
$477,410 Vol.
61%
1
$260,299 Vol.
35%
2
$32,241 Vol.
4%
3
$26,240 Vol.
1%
4
$24,765 Vol.
<1%
5+
$258,817 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus strongly favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI ≥4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers, criteria met only rarely on a global scale with a historical average of roughly 0.6 such events annually. Recent weekly reports note elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none of which have produced sufficient ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge and monitoring updates through year-end remain the key variables that could shift these odds if a major system escalates.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,079,772Data de Término
31 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus strongly favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI ≥4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers, criteria met only rarely on a global scale with a historical average of roughly 0.6 such events annually. Recent weekly reports note elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none of which have produced sufficient ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge and monitoring updates through year-end remain the key variables that could shift these odds if a major system escalates.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volume
$1,079,772Data de Término
31 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus strongly favors zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026, driven by the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. VEI ≥4 requires at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers, criteria met only rarely on a global scale with a historical average of roughly 0.6 such events annually. Recent weekly reports note elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none of which have produced sufficient ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge and monitoring updates through year-end remain the key variables that could shift these odds if a major system escalates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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