The closely matched probabilities around 22–25 Republican governors stem from 36 races featuring an unusually high share of open seats and term-limited incumbents, which reduces the protective effect of incumbency in a midterm cycle. Republicans currently hold 26 governorships and defend 18 seats, including two in states won by Kamala Harris in 2024, while Democrats defend five in states carried by Donald Trump. This creates balanced opportunities for net gains or losses depending on candidate quality, fundraising, and state-specific issues such as taxes and education policy. With primaries still underway and the general election months away, trader positioning remains tight as modest shifts in a handful of battlegrounds like Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin could determine the final count. Historical midterm patterns and polling trends in divided-government states further sustain the narrow spread.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado22–23 34%
24–25 31%
26–27 17%
<22 14%
$667,357 Vol.
$667,357 Vol.
3 nov 2026
<22
14%
22–23
34%
24–25
31%
26–27
17%
28–29
9%
30–31
<1%
32+
<1%
22–23 34%
24–25 31%
26–27 17%
<22 14%
$667,357 Vol.
$667,357 Vol.
3 nov 2026
<22
$45,042 Vol.
14%
22–23
$5,799 Vol.
34%
24–25
$30,030 Vol.
31%
26–27
$14,093 Vol.
17%
28–29
$553,895 Vol.
9%
30–31
$5,551 Vol.
<1%
32+
$12,947 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.The closely matched probabilities around 22–25 Republican governors stem from 36 races featuring an unusually high share of open seats and term-limited incumbents, which reduces the protective effect of incumbency in a midterm cycle. Republicans currently hold 26 governorships and defend 18 seats, including two in states won by Kamala Harris in 2024, while Democrats defend five in states carried by Donald Trump. This creates balanced opportunities for net gains or losses depending on candidate quality, fundraising, and state-specific issues such as taxes and education policy. With primaries still underway and the general election months away, trader positioning remains tight as modest shifts in a handful of battlegrounds like Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin could determine the final count. Historical midterm patterns and polling trends in divided-government states further sustain the narrow spread.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ET
Volume
$667,357Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.The closely matched probabilities around 22–25 Republican governors stem from 36 races featuring an unusually high share of open seats and term-limited incumbents, which reduces the protective effect of incumbency in a midterm cycle. Republicans currently hold 26 governorships and defend 18 seats, including two in states won by Kamala Harris in 2024, while Democrats defend five in states carried by Donald Trump. This creates balanced opportunities for net gains or losses depending on candidate quality, fundraising, and state-specific issues such as taxes and education policy. With primaries still underway and the general election months away, trader positioning remains tight as modest shifts in a handful of battlegrounds like Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin could determine the final count. Historical midterm patterns and polling trends in divided-government states further sustain the narrow spread.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$667,357Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 15, 2025, 8:21 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The closely matched probabilities around 22–25 Republican governors stem from 36 races featuring an unusually high share of open seats and term-limited incumbents, which reduces the protective effect of incumbency in a midterm cycle. Republicans currently hold 26 governorships and defend 18 seats, including two in states won by Kamala Harris in 2024, while Democrats defend five in states carried by Donald Trump. This creates balanced opportunities for net gains or losses depending on candidate quality, fundraising, and state-specific issues such as taxes and education policy. With primaries still underway and the general election months away, trader positioning remains tight as modest shifts in a handful of battlegrounds like Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin could determine the final count. Historical midterm patterns and polling trends in divided-government states further sustain the narrow spread.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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