**Trader consensus on “No” at 97.2% reflects stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and Iran’s continued resistance to halting uranium enrichment.** A June 2026 memorandum of understanding ended recent military conflict and set a 60-day window (expiring around mid-August) for discussions on the nuclear program, yet reports indicate Iran has rejected core U.S. demands including facility dismantlement, zero enrichment, and transfer of highly enriched uranium stockpiles. IAEA monitoring and public statements show Tehran maintaining and rebuilding enrichment capacity at sites such as Natanz and Fordow following prior strikes, with no verified commitments to cap or end activities by the September 30 deadline. Historical patterns of Iranian positions on enrichment limits, combined with the short remaining timeline and limited diplomatic progress, underpin the market’s strong skepticism. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a last-minute concessions package tied to sanctions relief or renewed IAEA verification access before the cutoff.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO Irã concorda em acabar com o enriquecimento de urânio até 30 de setembro?
O Irã concorda em acabar com o enriquecimento de urânio até 30 de setembro?
Sim
3% chance
$62,705 Vol.
$62,705 Vol.
30 set 2026
Sim
3% chance
$62,705 Vol.
$62,705 Vol.
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Trader consensus on “No” at 97.2% reflects stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and Iran’s continued resistance to halting uranium enrichment.** A June 2026 memorandum of understanding ended recent military conflict and set a 60-day window (expiring around mid-August) for discussions on the nuclear program, yet reports indicate Iran has rejected core U.S. demands including facility dismantlement, zero enrichment, and transfer of highly enriched uranium stockpiles. IAEA monitoring and public statements show Tehran maintaining and rebuilding enrichment capacity at sites such as Natanz and Fordow following prior strikes, with no verified commitments to cap or end activities by the September 30 deadline. Historical patterns of Iranian positions on enrichment limits, combined with the short remaining timeline and limited diplomatic progress, underpin the market’s strong skepticism.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a last-minute concessions package tied to sanctions relief or renewed IAEA verification access before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$62,705Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Trader consensus on “No” at 97.2% reflects stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and Iran’s continued resistance to halting uranium enrichment.** A June 2026 memorandum of understanding ended recent military conflict and set a 60-day window (expiring around mid-August) for discussions on the nuclear program, yet reports indicate Iran has rejected core U.S. demands including facility dismantlement, zero enrichment, and transfer of highly enriched uranium stockpiles. IAEA monitoring and public statements show Tehran maintaining and rebuilding enrichment capacity at sites such as Natanz and Fordow following prior strikes, with no verified commitments to cap or end activities by the September 30 deadline. Historical patterns of Iranian positions on enrichment limits, combined with the short remaining timeline and limited diplomatic progress, underpin the market’s strong skepticism.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a last-minute concessions package tied to sanctions relief or renewed IAEA verification access before the cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$62,705Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on “No” at 97.2% reflects stalled U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and Iran’s continued resistance to halting uranium enrichment.** A June 2026 memorandum of understanding ended recent military conflict and set a 60-day window (expiring around mid-August) for discussions on the nuclear program, yet reports indicate Iran has rejected core U.S. demands including facility dismantlement, zero enrichment, and transfer of highly enriched uranium stockpiles. IAEA monitoring and public statements show Tehran maintaining and rebuilding enrichment capacity at sites such as Natanz and Fordow following prior strikes, with no verified commitments to cap or end activities by the September 30 deadline. Historical patterns of Iranian positions on enrichment limits, combined with the short remaining timeline and limited diplomatic progress, underpin the market’s strong skepticism. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include a last-minute concessions package tied to sanctions relief or renewed IAEA verification access before the cutoff.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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