Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability against an Iran coup attempt by June 30 because the regime has consolidated authority under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following the February 2026 leadership transition, with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders publicly pledging allegiance and directing internal security priorities. Recent weeks show Tehran focused on military reconstitution during the ceasefire, economic stabilization efforts, and negotiations with the United States rather than visible factional fractures or command-level challenges. While earlier 2026 protests prompted executions and repression, and isolated April rumors highlighted IRGC-moderate tensions, no verified troop movements, arrests of senior officials, or public statements signal an imminent overthrow bid. This stability, combined with constitutional mechanisms for rapid leadership succession, underpins the strong consensus that no coup will occur in the narrow remaining window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$1,126,544 Vol.
$1,126,544 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$1,126,544 Vol.
$1,126,544 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability against an Iran coup attempt by June 30 because the regime has consolidated authority under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following the February 2026 leadership transition, with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders publicly pledging allegiance and directing internal security priorities. Recent weeks show Tehran focused on military reconstitution during the ceasefire, economic stabilization efforts, and negotiations with the United States rather than visible factional fractures or command-level challenges. While earlier 2026 protests prompted executions and repression, and isolated April rumors highlighted IRGC-moderate tensions, no verified troop movements, arrests of senior officials, or public statements signal an imminent overthrow bid. This stability, combined with constitutional mechanisms for rapid leadership succession, underpins the strong consensus that no coup will occur in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,126,544Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability against an Iran coup attempt by June 30 because the regime has consolidated authority under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following the February 2026 leadership transition, with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders publicly pledging allegiance and directing internal security priorities. Recent weeks show Tehran focused on military reconstitution during the ceasefire, economic stabilization efforts, and negotiations with the United States rather than visible factional fractures or command-level challenges. While earlier 2026 protests prompted executions and repression, and isolated April rumors highlighted IRGC-moderate tensions, no verified troop movements, arrests of senior officials, or public statements signal an imminent overthrow bid. This stability, combined with constitutional mechanisms for rapid leadership succession, underpins the strong consensus that no coup will occur in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,126,544Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability against an Iran coup attempt by June 30 because the regime has consolidated authority under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following the February 2026 leadership transition, with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders publicly pledging allegiance and directing internal security priorities. Recent weeks show Tehran focused on military reconstitution during the ceasefire, economic stabilization efforts, and negotiations with the United States rather than visible factional fractures or command-level challenges. While earlier 2026 protests prompted executions and repression, and isolated April rumors highlighted IRGC-moderate tensions, no verified troop movements, arrests of senior officials, or public statements signal an imminent overthrow bid. This stability, combined with constitutional mechanisms for rapid leadership succession, underpins the strong consensus that no coup will occur in the narrow remaining window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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