Internal factional rivalries within Iran's leadership, intensified after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent US-Israeli military operations, form the core driver of trader positioning on coup attempt timelines. Hardliners have publicly accused wartime officials and reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian of staging a soft coup through truce negotiations and disputed appointments, including Basij command changes, amid ongoing economic pressures and protest suppression. Regime emphasis on internal security networks and judicial crackdowns has limited visible fractures, keeping implied probabilities for near-term attempts low. Upcoming confirmation hearings, succession maneuvers involving Mojtaba Khamenei, and any escalation in diplomatic or domestic tensions could shift sentiment if they expose deeper institutional splits.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$2,115,813 Vol.
31 dez 2026
31 de dezembro
12%
$2,115,813 Vol.
31 de dezembro
$74,587 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal factional rivalries within Iran's leadership, intensified after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent US-Israeli military operations, form the core driver of trader positioning on coup attempt timelines. Hardliners have publicly accused wartime officials and reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian of staging a soft coup through truce negotiations and disputed appointments, including Basij command changes, amid ongoing economic pressures and protest suppression. Regime emphasis on internal security networks and judicial crackdowns has limited visible fractures, keeping implied probabilities for near-term attempts low. Upcoming confirmation hearings, succession maneuvers involving Mojtaba Khamenei, and any escalation in diplomatic or domestic tensions could shift sentiment if they expose deeper institutional splits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,115,813Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal factional rivalries within Iran's leadership, intensified after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent US-Israeli military operations, form the core driver of trader positioning on coup attempt timelines. Hardliners have publicly accused wartime officials and reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian of staging a soft coup through truce negotiations and disputed appointments, including Basij command changes, amid ongoing economic pressures and protest suppression. Regime emphasis on internal security networks and judicial crackdowns has limited visible fractures, keeping implied probabilities for near-term attempts low. Upcoming confirmation hearings, succession maneuvers involving Mojtaba Khamenei, and any escalation in diplomatic or domestic tensions could shift sentiment if they expose deeper institutional splits.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,115,813Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal factional rivalries within Iran's leadership, intensified after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent US-Israeli military operations, form the core driver of trader positioning on coup attempt timelines. Hardliners have publicly accused wartime officials and reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian of staging a soft coup through truce negotiations and disputed appointments, including Basij command changes, amid ongoing economic pressures and protest suppression. Regime emphasis on internal security networks and judicial crackdowns has limited visible fractures, keeping implied probabilities for near-term attempts low. Upcoming confirmation hearings, succession maneuvers involving Mojtaba Khamenei, and any escalation in diplomatic or domestic tensions could shift sentiment if they expose deeper institutional splits.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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