U.S.-mediated direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, resumed today in Washington amid a fragile April ceasefire extended through mid-May, have yielded agreement on goals like Hezbollah disarmament, Israeli withdrawal, and border demarcation but deadlock on sequencing—Israel demands verified disarmament first, while Lebanon insists on withdrawal beforehand. Lebanese Premier Nawaf Salam recently clarified pursuit of "cold peace" modeled on Egypt and Jordan, explicitly rejecting normalization with full diplomatic ties. Ongoing low-level clashes, Hezbollah opposition, and domestic constraints in Lebanon's sectarian system sustain trader consensus at 77.5% against formal relations by year-end, despite optimism for security arrangements.