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icon for Joseph Aoun como presidente do Líbano até 31 de dezembro?

Joseph Aoun como presidente do Líbano até 31 de dezembro?

icon for Joseph Aoun como presidente do Líbano até 31 de dezembro?

Joseph Aoun como presidente do Líbano até 31 de dezembro?

Sim

7% chance
Polymarket

$32,495 Vol.

Sim

7% chance
Polymarket

$32,495 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Joseph Aoun, elected president by Lebanon’s parliament in January 2025 with 99 votes, holds a six-year term amid ongoing efforts to reassert state authority after the 2024–2025 conflict with Israel.** Recent diplomatic activity reinforces his position: in mid-September 2026 he met French President Macron and Jordan’s King Abdullah in Paris to secure international backing for the Lebanese Armed Forces, discussed a potential security agreement with Israel as a step toward ending hostilities, and reiterated the non-negotiable goal of bringing Hezbollah weapons under state control without internal confrontation. Parliament renewed confidence in the government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Aoun continues to coordinate on southern deployments ahead of the UNIFIL mandate’s scheduled end on December 31, 2026. No parliamentary challenges, resignation signals, or constitutional mechanisms for early removal have surfaced in credible reporting. Traders therefore assign high implied probability to his continued tenure through year-end, consistent with the standard term length and the absence of acute political triggers.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$32,495
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Joseph Aoun, elected president by Lebanon’s parliament in January 2025 with 99 votes, holds a six-year term amid ongoing efforts to reassert state authority after the 2024–2025 conflict with Israel.** Recent diplomatic activity reinforces his position: in mid-September 2026 he met French President Macron and Jordan’s King Abdullah in Paris to secure international backing for the Lebanese Armed Forces, discussed a potential security agreement with Israel as a step toward ending hostilities, and reiterated the non-negotiable goal of bringing Hezbollah weapons under state control without internal confrontation. Parliament renewed confidence in the government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, and Aoun continues to coordinate on southern deployments ahead of the UNIFIL mandate’s scheduled end on December 31, 2026. No parliamentary challenges, resignation signals, or constitutional mechanisms for early removal have surfaced in credible reporting. Traders therefore assign high implied probability to his continued tenure through year-end, consistent with the standard term length and the absence of acute political triggers.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$32,495
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Joseph Aoun como presidente do Líbano até 31 de dezembro?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Joseph Aoun deixará de ser presidente do Líbano até 31 de dezembro?" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Joseph Aoun como presidente do Líbano até 31 de dezembro?" has generated $32.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 19, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Joseph Aoun como presidente do Líbano até 31 de dezembro?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Joseph Aoun como presidente do Líbano até 31 de dezembro?" is "Joseph Aoun deixará de ser presidente do Líbano até 31 de dezembro?" at just 7%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Joseph Aoun como presidente do Líbano até 31 de dezembro?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.