The Adilet party’s June merger with the long-dominant Amanat positions it as the primary pro-presidential contender for the August 23 Kurultai elections, where proportional party-list voting will allocate all 145 seats and 73 are required for a majority. Trader consensus at even odds reflects the debut of this unicameral system under the March 2026 constitution, the participation of seven registered parties, and the short window for completing legal integration of the merged entity ahead of the vote. Key variables that could shift probabilities include the pace of campaign consolidation around Adilet, any measurable shifts in voter turnout or preference among the other lists, and the absence of late developments that fragment the pro-presidential vote in Kazakhstan’s first nationwide proportional contest.