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icon for Vencedor do Likud Party Primary

Vencedor do Likud Party Primary

icon for Vencedor do Likud Party Primary

Vencedor do Likud Party Primary

Amir Ohana 82%

Yariv Levin 5.9%

Tally Gotliv 5.8%

Eli Cohen 5.1%

Polymarket

$60,775 Vol.

Amir Ohana 82%

Yariv Levin 5.9%

Tally Gotliv 5.8%

Eli Cohen 5.1%

Polymarket

$60,775 Vol.

icon for Amir Ohana

Amir Ohana

$19,298 Vol.

82%

icon for Yariv Levin

Yariv Levin

$3,909 Vol.

6%

icon for Tally Gotliv

Tally Gotliv

$13,081 Vol.

6%

icon for Eli Cohen

Eli Cohen

$1,556 Vol.

5%

icon for Sem primária até a eleição para o Knesset

Sem primária até a eleição para o Knesset

$9,710 Vol.

3%

icon for Boaz Bismuth

Boaz Bismuth

$1,287 Vol.

1%

icon for Miri Regev

Miri Regev

$655 Vol.

1%

icon for Shlomo Karhi

Shlomo Karhi

$1,016 Vol.

1%

icon for Israel Katz

Israel Katz

$2,245 Vol.

1%

icon for Moshe Saada

Moshe Saada

$882 Vol.

1%

icon for David Amsalem

David Amsalem

$832 Vol.

1%

icon for Almog Cohen

Almog Cohen

$909 Vol.

1%

icon for Amichai Chikli

Amichai Chikli

$910 Vol.

1%

icon for Nir Barkat

Nir Barkat

$2,180 Vol.

<1%

icon for Yoav Kisch

Yoav Kisch

$841 Vol.

<1%

icon for Miki Zohar

Miki Zohar

$667 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Bitan

David Bitan

$800 Vol.

<1%

Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections. If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election". If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.Amir Ohana leads Likud’s internal primary for Knesset slate positions, scheduled for August 17, 2026, ahead of the October legislative election. Netanyahu’s recent expansion of reserved slots among the top 30 candidates has intensified competition for the remaining open spots while an internal party poll placed Ohana, Tally Gotliv, and Miri Regev among the strongest contenders. Party members, numbering roughly 140,000, vote directly for most list placements, and a court ruling barring incumbents from certain district races has further shaped the field. Trader consensus reflects Ohana’s established position within the party and consistent polling strength, while lower-priced alternatives such as Yariv Levin and several ministers trail amid these procedural changes and the primary’s imminent resolution.

Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.

If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".

If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Volume
$60,775
Data de Término
26 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ET
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections. If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election". If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections. If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election". If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.Amir Ohana leads Likud’s internal primary for Knesset slate positions, scheduled for August 17, 2026, ahead of the October legislative election. Netanyahu’s recent expansion of reserved slots among the top 30 candidates has intensified competition for the remaining open spots while an internal party poll placed Ohana, Tally Gotliv, and Miri Regev among the strongest contenders. Party members, numbering roughly 140,000, vote directly for most list placements, and a court ruling barring incumbents from certain district races has further shaped the field. Trader consensus reflects Ohana’s established position within the party and consistent polling strength, while lower-priced alternatives such as Yariv Levin and several ministers trail amid these procedural changes and the primary’s imminent resolution.

Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections.

If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election".

If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.
Volume
$60,775
Data de Término
26 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 21, 2026, 7:34 PM ET
Primary elections for the Likud Party of Israel are expected to be held in 2026 to determine the composition of the Likud party list that will contest the 2026 Knesset elections. It is expected that the winner of the Likud party primary elections will occupy second place on the Likud party list, after the party leader. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Likud primary elections. If no Likud primary election occurs by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, regardless of whether a party list is released, this market will resolve to “No Primary by Knesset Election”. An official announcement of cancellation of the primary is not sufficient for this market to resolve to "No Primary by Knesset Election". If the primary election takes place and election results are not known definitively by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to the individual that occupies the second place on the Likud party list to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. If no such party list is released by the earlier of i) the 2026 Knesset elections, or ii) December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from Likud.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor do Likud Party Primary" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Amir Ohana" at 82%, followed by "Yariv Levin" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor do Likud Party Primary" has generated $60.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor do Likud Party Primary," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor do Likud Party Primary" is "Amir Ohana" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Yariv Levin" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor do Likud Party Primary" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.