Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral market at 74.6% implied probability because recent JNE rulings confirmed his candidacy as first regidor on the Renovación Popular list after the original mayoral nominee resigned, positioning him to assume the post automatically under municipal law if the slate wins on October 4. Polls in early September showed his support in the low-to-mid 20s, ahead of Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) at 17% and other listed contenders such as Francis Allison, Daniel Urresti, and Ricardo Belmont, all below 5%. Traders appear to factor in López Aliaga’s prior term as mayor, the party’s established Lima base, and the short remaining campaign window before the vote. Bruce sits at 22.9% as the clearest alternative, while most other named candidates register minimal shares consistent with fragmented polling.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRafael López Aliaga 74.7%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 22.9%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 2.6%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.1%
$151,798 Vol.
$151,798 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
75%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
23%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
3%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 74.7%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 22.9%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 2.6%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.1%
$151,798 Vol.
$151,798 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
75%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
23%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
3%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral market at 74.6% implied probability because recent JNE rulings confirmed his candidacy as first regidor on the Renovación Popular list after the original mayoral nominee resigned, positioning him to assume the post automatically under municipal law if the slate wins on October 4. Polls in early September showed his support in the low-to-mid 20s, ahead of Carlos Bruce (Somos Perú) at 17% and other listed contenders such as Francis Allison, Daniel Urresti, and Ricardo Belmont, all below 5%. Traders appear to factor in López Aliaga’s prior term as mayor, the party’s established Lima base, and the short remaining campaign window before the vote. Bruce sits at 22.9% as the clearest alternative, while most other named candidates register minimal shares consistent with fragmented polling.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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