Current forecast consensus from meteorological agencies and models indicates a minimum temperature of 26°C in Shenzhen on September 11, driven by stable subtropical high pressure, northeasterly winds at 5–7 m/s, and limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with dew points near 22–23°C. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September, where typical lows range 24–27°C absent strong frontal systems or tropical influences. The 98% market-implied probability on 26°C reflects traders' assessment of tight model agreement and real-time observations showing no rapid cooling. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected cloud cover changes enhancing radiative losses or localized urban effects pushing the reading to 25°C, though these remain low-probability given current conditions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Shenzhen em 11 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Shenzhen em 11 de setembro?
26°C 98%
25°C 8%
20°C ou menos 1.0%
22°C 1.0%
NOVO
NOVO
11 set 2026
20°C ou menos
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
8%
26°C
98%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C ou mais
<1%
26°C 98%
25°C 8%
20°C ou menos 1.0%
22°C 1.0%
NOVO
NOVO
11 set 2026
20°C ou menos
$20 Vol.
1%
21°C
$20 Vol.
1%
22°C
$5 Vol.
1%
23°C
$30 Vol.
1%
24°C
$83 Vol.
1%
25°C
$129 Vol.
8%
26°C
$110 Vol.
98%
27°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
30°C ou mais
$160 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from meteorological agencies and models indicates a minimum temperature of 26°C in Shenzhen on September 11, driven by stable subtropical high pressure, northeasterly winds at 5–7 m/s, and limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with dew points near 22–23°C. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September, where typical lows range 24–27°C absent strong frontal systems or tropical influences. The 98% market-implied probability on 26°C reflects traders' assessment of tight model agreement and real-time observations showing no rapid cooling. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected cloud cover changes enhancing radiative losses or localized urban effects pushing the reading to 25°C, though these remain low-probability given current conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$622Data de Término
11 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from meteorological agencies and models indicates a minimum temperature of 26°C in Shenzhen on September 11, driven by stable subtropical high pressure, northeasterly winds at 5–7 m/s, and limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with dew points near 22–23°C. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September, where typical lows range 24–27°C absent strong frontal systems or tropical influences. The 98% market-implied probability on 26°C reflects traders' assessment of tight model agreement and real-time observations showing no rapid cooling. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected cloud cover changes enhancing radiative losses or localized urban effects pushing the reading to 25°C, though these remain low-probability given current conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$622Data de Término
11 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from meteorological agencies and models indicates a minimum temperature of 26°C in Shenzhen on September 11, driven by stable subtropical high pressure, northeasterly winds at 5–7 m/s, and limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies with dew points near 22–23°C. This aligns with climatological norms for mid-September, where typical lows range 24–27°C absent strong frontal systems or tropical influences. The 98% market-implied probability on 26°C reflects traders' assessment of tight model agreement and real-time observations showing no rapid cooling. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include unexpected cloud cover changes enhancing radiative losses or localized urban effects pushing the reading to 25°C, though these remain low-probability given current conditions.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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