Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position heading into New Mexico’s November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the party a 95.7 percent implied probability. Recent polling shows Luján leading Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson by 60 points ahead of the June 2 contest, while the Republican field remains limited to a write-in candidate after another contender was disqualified for failing ballot requirements. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and the absence of a competitive Republican nominee since 2002. This positioning leaves little room for an upset absent a major shift in candidate viability or unexpected developments before November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para o Senado do Novo México
Vencedor da eleição para o Senado do Novo México
$15,009 Vol.
$15,009 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democrata
96%
Republicano
3%
$15,009 Vol.
$15,009 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democrata
$8,093 Vol.
96%
Republicano
$6,916 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position heading into New Mexico’s November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the party a 95.7 percent implied probability. Recent polling shows Luján leading Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson by 60 points ahead of the June 2 contest, while the Republican field remains limited to a write-in candidate after another contender was disqualified for failing ballot requirements. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and the absence of a competitive Republican nominee since 2002. This positioning leaves little room for an upset absent a major shift in candidate viability or unexpected developments before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$15,009Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position heading into New Mexico’s November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the party a 95.7 percent implied probability. Recent polling shows Luján leading Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson by 60 points ahead of the June 2 contest, while the Republican field remains limited to a write-in candidate after another contender was disqualified for failing ballot requirements. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and the absence of a competitive Republican nominee since 2002. This positioning leaves little room for an upset absent a major shift in candidate viability or unexpected developments before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$15,009Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding position heading into New Mexico’s November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the party a 95.7 percent implied probability. Recent polling shows Luján leading Democratic primary challenger Matt Dodson by 60 points ahead of the June 2 contest, while the Republican field remains limited to a write-in candidate after another contender was disqualified for failing ballot requirements. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, consistent with the state’s partisan lean and the absence of a competitive Republican nominee since 2002. This positioning leaves little room for an upset absent a major shift in candidate viability or unexpected developments before November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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