Incumbent Republican Chris Smith’s decades-long tenure in New Jersey’s 4th congressional district, combined with its consistent Republican lean shown in recent presidential and House results, anchors the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Smith ran unopposed in the June primary and enters the November general against Democrat Rachel Peace, who won her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district rated solid or safe Republican by multiple forecasters. Historical margins exceeding 20 points and limited recent polling reinforce expectations of continued GOP control. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged in the current cycle.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNJ-04 House Election Winner
NJ-04 House Election Winner
NOVO
NOVO
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
NOVO
NOVO
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
$5,448 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$4,026 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith’s decades-long tenure in New Jersey’s 4th congressional district, combined with its consistent Republican lean shown in recent presidential and House results, anchors the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Smith ran unopposed in the June primary and enters the November general against Democrat Rachel Peace, who won her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district rated solid or safe Republican by multiple forecasters. Historical margins exceeding 20 points and limited recent polling reinforce expectations of continued GOP control. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$9,474Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Chris Smith’s decades-long tenure in New Jersey’s 4th congressional district, combined with its consistent Republican lean shown in recent presidential and House results, anchors the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Smith ran unopposed in the June primary and enters the November general against Democrat Rachel Peace, who won her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district rated solid or safe Republican by multiple forecasters. Historical margins exceeding 20 points and limited recent polling reinforce expectations of continued GOP control. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged in the current cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,474Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Chris Smith’s decades-long tenure in New Jersey’s 4th congressional district, combined with its consistent Republican lean shown in recent presidential and House results, anchors the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Smith ran unopposed in the June primary and enters the November general against Democrat Rachel Peace, who won her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district rated solid or safe Republican by multiple forecasters. Historical margins exceeding 20 points and limited recent polling reinforce expectations of continued GOP control. A major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged in the current cycle.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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