Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026 and prompted Tehran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, continue to constrain commercial traffic to a fraction of pre-crisis levels. Recent data show just five to seven daily transits versus the historical 125–140, amid ongoing risks of attacks, U.S. blockade measures, and elevated insurance premiums. The World Bank’s May 6 assessment that normalization is unlikely before late 2026, combined with major carriers such as Hapag-Lloyd suspending transits and reports of roughly 2,000 stranded vessels, underpins the 57.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by July 31. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers while pricing in the possibility of a durable ceasefire or de-escalation within the next ten weeks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
$232,751 Vol.
$232,751 Vol.
31 jul 2026
$232,751 Vol.
$232,751 Vol.
31 jul 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026 and prompted Tehran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, continue to constrain commercial traffic to a fraction of pre-crisis levels. Recent data show just five to seven daily transits versus the historical 125–140, amid ongoing risks of attacks, U.S. blockade measures, and elevated insurance premiums. The World Bank’s May 6 assessment that normalization is unlikely before late 2026, combined with major carriers such as Hapag-Lloyd suspending transits and reports of roughly 2,000 stranded vessels, underpins the 57.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by July 31. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers while pricing in the possibility of a durable ceasefire or de-escalation within the next ten weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volume
$232,751Data de Término
31 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026 and prompted Tehran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, continue to constrain commercial traffic to a fraction of pre-crisis levels. Recent data show just five to seven daily transits versus the historical 125–140, amid ongoing risks of attacks, U.S. blockade measures, and elevated insurance premiums. The World Bank’s May 6 assessment that normalization is unlikely before late 2026, combined with major carriers such as Hapag-Lloyd suspending transits and reports of roughly 2,000 stranded vessels, underpins the 57.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by July 31. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers while pricing in the possibility of a durable ceasefire or de-escalation within the next ten weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$232,751Data de Término
31 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February 2026 and prompted Tehran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, continue to constrain commercial traffic to a fraction of pre-crisis levels. Recent data show just five to seven daily transits versus the historical 125–140, amid ongoing risks of attacks, U.S. blockade measures, and elevated insurance premiums. The World Bank’s May 6 assessment that normalization is unlikely before late 2026, combined with major carriers such as Hapag-Lloyd suspending transits and reports of roughly 2,000 stranded vessels, underpins the 57.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by July 31. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers while pricing in the possibility of a durable ceasefire or de-escalation within the next ten weeks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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