Republican-led House Oversight Committee investigations have centered on extensive fraud in Minnesota Medicaid and social services programs during Tim Walz’s governorship, with federal estimates reaching $9 billion in losses since 2018 and dozens of individuals charged. Hearings in early 2026 examined whether Walz and Attorney General Keith Ellison knew of the schemes, delayed intervention, or hindered whistleblowers, prompting Walz to drop his reelection bid. In June 2026, Vice President JD Vance referred the officials to the Department of Justice for a potential criminal fraud probe, alongside a separate obstruction inquiry tied to immigration enforcement. A federal judge later blocked certain subpoenas in the latter matter. Trader consensus reflected in low probabilities for charges by December 31, 2026, aligns with the absence of indictments despite these referrals and the procedural hurdles in pursuing state officials.