Turkey’s ruling AKP-led coalition holds 321 parliamentary seats, short of the 360 needed to call early elections or advance major constitutional changes under Article 116. While President Erdogan and officials including Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş have reiterated support for a civilian constitution to replace the 1982 charter, work remains at the commission stage with broad consultations planned but no floor vote or referendum scheduled for 2026. Recent focus has centered on PKK peace talks and term-limit maneuvers ahead of 2028 rather than immediate constitutional overhaul. Traders assign 91% probability to no meaningful movement this year, reflecting these legislative thresholds and competing priorities.