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icon for Acordo EUA-Irã assinado fisicamente por...?
Política·EUA X Irão

Acordo EUA-Irã assinado fisicamente por...?

icon for Acordo EUA-Irã assinado fisicamente por...?
Política·EUA X Irão

Acordo EUA-Irã assinado fisicamente por...?

NOVO
19 jun 2026
Polymarket

$4,490 Vol.

Polymarket

19 de junho

$1,680 Vol.

76%

30 de junho

$2,810 Vol.

84%

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. “Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed. The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Recent developments center on a preliminary US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) reached around June 15, 2026, after months of conflict and Pakistan-mediated talks.** US and Iranian officials have electronically signed the framework, which extends a ceasefire, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, ends the naval blockade, and launches 60 days of further negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and related issues. President Trump announced the accord publicly, described it as ruling out a nuclear weapon for Iran, and indicated the full text would be released soon; Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed a final text and stated a physical signing ceremony is set for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland (Geneva referenced in reporting). **Key political drivers include the need to stabilize energy markets and de-escalate regional hostilities involving Lebanon and other fronts, alongside structural barriers such as unresolved enrichment limits, verification, and the fact that Israel is not a party to the agreement.** The electronic signature has already occurred, but the market focuses on a physical signing, making the scheduled Swiss ceremony the immediate catalyst. Any delay in that event, disputes over the unpublished text, or complications in the follow-on 60-day talks could shift probabilities, while successful execution would align with the current trader consensus reflected in tight timelines.

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.

“Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed.

The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,490
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 16, 2026, 11:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. “Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed. The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. “Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed. The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Recent developments center on a preliminary US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) reached around June 15, 2026, after months of conflict and Pakistan-mediated talks.** US and Iranian officials have electronically signed the framework, which extends a ceasefire, reopens the Strait of Hormuz, ends the naval blockade, and launches 60 days of further negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and related issues. President Trump announced the accord publicly, described it as ruling out a nuclear weapon for Iran, and indicated the full text would be released soon; Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed a final text and stated a physical signing ceremony is set for Friday, June 19, in Switzerland (Geneva referenced in reporting). **Key political drivers include the need to stabilize energy markets and de-escalate regional hostilities involving Lebanon and other fronts, alongside structural barriers such as unresolved enrichment limits, verification, and the fact that Israel is not a party to the agreement.** The electronic signature has already occurred, but the market focuses on a physical signing, making the scheduled Swiss ceremony the immediate catalyst. Any delay in that event, disputes over the unpublished text, or complications in the follow-on 60-day talks could shift probabilities, while successful execution would align with the current trader consensus reflected in tight timelines.

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.

“Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed.

The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,490
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 16, 2026, 11:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran both physically sign the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14 by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement. “Physically signs” means that the authorized representatives personally sign the agreement by hand, including by signing a physical copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement. Electronic or digital signatures will not qualify. An agreement which was previously executed through electronic signature may still be physically signed. The agreement must be physically signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Acordo EUA-Irã assinado fisicamente por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 de junho" at 84%, followed by "19 de junho" at 76%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 84¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Acordo EUA-Irã assinado fisicamente por...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Acordo EUA-Irã assinado fisicamente por...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Acordo EUA-Irã assinado fisicamente por...?" is "30 de junho" at 84%, meaning the market assigns a 84% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "19 de junho" at 76%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Acordo EUA-Irã assinado fisicamente por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.