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Geopolítica·EUA X Irão

Quem participará na cerimónia de assinatura EUA-Irão?

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Geopolítica·EUA X Irão

Quem participará na cerimónia de assinatura EUA-Irão?

NOVO
7 jul 2026
Polymarket

$7,350 Vol.

Polymarket

Abbas Araghchi

$200 Vol.

90%

Xeique Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani

$0 Vol.

43%

Shehbaz Sharif

$434 Vol.

75%

Steve Witkoff

$120 Vol.

80%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$279 Vol.

13%

Rei Abdullah II

$830 Vol.

11%

Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah

$146 Vol.

41%

Mohammed bin Salman

$792 Vol.

4%

Marco Rubio

$350 Vol.

8%

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa

$218 Vol.

40%

Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan

$66 Vol.

42%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$503 Vol.

3%

Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

$331 Vol.

15%

Mojtaba Khamenei

$518 Vol.

2%

Pete Hegseth

$376 Vol.

5%

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

$280 Vol.

22%

JD Vance

$469 Vol.

87%

Donald Trump

$1,100 Vol.

9%

Jared Kushner

$100 Vol.

72%

Elon Musk

$236 Vol.

2%

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location. Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event. If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. US and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 to extend the April ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, reduce hostilities linked to Lebanon, and launch 60 days of further talks on nuclear issues and sanctions. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Geneva, Switzerland, with Pakistan and Qatar serving as mediators. US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance have already virtually signed elements of the framework, while Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is positioned as the likely lead representative for Tehran. Lingering differences over implementation details, including Israeli actions in Lebanon, remain unresolved ahead of the in-person event and could influence attendance or last-minute adjustments.

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location.

Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event.

If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,350
Data de Término
7 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 16, 2026, 11:56 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location. Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event. If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location. Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event. If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. US and Iranian officials reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding in mid-June 2026 to extend the April ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, reduce hostilities linked to Lebanon, and launch 60 days of further talks on nuclear issues and sanctions. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Geneva, Switzerland, with Pakistan and Qatar serving as mediators. US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance have already virtually signed elements of the framework, while Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is positioned as the likely lead representative for Tehran. Lingering differences over implementation details, including Israeli actions in Lebanon, remain unresolved ahead of the in-person event and could influence attendance or last-minute adjustments.

On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location.

Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event.

If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,350
Data de Término
7 jul 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 16, 2026, 11:56 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual attends a signing ceremony between the United States and Iran by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A signing ceremony refers to any official event convened by or on behalf of the United States and Iran for the purpose of physically signing, executing, or formalizing a written agreement between the two countries, at which authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran are physically present at the same location. Attendance at the signing ceremony refers to the listed individual being physically present at any point during the event. If a qualifying signing ceremony occurs and the listed individual does not attend the event, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If no qualifying signing ceremony occurs by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quem participará na cerimónia de assinatura EUA-Irão?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abbas Araghchi" at 90%, followed by "JD Vance" at 87%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Quem participará na cerimónia de assinatura EUA-Irão?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Quem participará na cerimónia de assinatura EUA-Irão?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quem participará na cerimónia de assinatura EUA-Irão?" is "Abbas Araghchi" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "JD Vance" at 87%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quem participará na cerimónia de assinatura EUA-Irão?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.