Skip to main content
icon for Os EUA reconhecem a soberania russa sobre a Crimeia antes de 2027?

Os EUA reconhecem a soberania russa sobre a Crimeia antes de 2027?

icon for Os EUA reconhecem a soberania russa sobre a Crimeia antes de 2027?

Os EUA reconhecem a soberania russa sobre a Crimeia antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

22% chance
Polymarket

$28,158 Vol.

Sim

22% chance
Polymarket

$28,158 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus reflects an 79.5% implied probability for "No," anchored by the U.S. government's unwavering non-recognition policy toward Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, underscored by President Trump's February 2026 extension of targeted sanctions beyond March 2026. Bipartisan congressional measures like S.1749 and H.R.1600, advanced in 2025, explicitly bar any formal acknowledgment of Russian sovereignty over Crimea or other seized Ukrainian territories, signaling strong legislative resistance. Early 2025 Trump administration peace frameworks floated de facto acceptance of Russian control as a Ukraine war concession, but Ukrainian and European rejections, coupled with stalled diplomatic talks, have prevented implementation. Absent major breakthroughs in ongoing negotiations or executive orders, traders anticipate policy continuity through 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.

Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,158
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus reflects an 79.5% implied probability for "No," anchored by the U.S. government's unwavering non-recognition policy toward Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea, underscored by President Trump's February 2026 extension of targeted sanctions beyond March 2026. Bipartisan congressional measures like S.1749 and H.R.1600, advanced in 2025, explicitly bar any formal acknowledgment of Russian sovereignty over Crimea or other seized Ukrainian territories, signaling strong legislative resistance. Early 2025 Trump administration peace frameworks floated de facto acceptance of Russian control as a Ukraine war concession, but Ukrainian and European rejections, coupled with stalled diplomatic talks, have prevented implementation. Absent major breakthroughs in ongoing negotiations or executive orders, traders anticipate policy continuity through 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action.

Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,158
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:50 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Os EUA reconhecem a soberania russa sobre a Crimeia antes de 2027? " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Os EUA reconhecem a soberania russa sobre a Crimeia antes de 2027?" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 21¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Os EUA reconhecem a soberania russa sobre a Crimeia antes de 2027? " has generated $28.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Os EUA reconhecem a soberania russa sobre a Crimeia antes de 2027? ," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Os EUA reconhecem a soberania russa sobre a Crimeia antes de 2027? " is "Os EUA reconhecem a soberania russa sobre a Crimeia antes de 2027?" at 21%, meaning the market assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Os EUA reconhecem a soberania russa sobre a Crimeia antes de 2027? " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.