Escalating US-Iran tensions have triggered an active US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, with MH-60R helicopters and surface assets enforcing selective maritime denial as of mid-September 2026. This has spiked war-risk insurance premiums by 1.2–15 times baseline levels, reduced daily tanker transits well below pre-conflict averages of 130+, and supported Brent crude near $102 per barrel amid supply uncertainty. US Fifth Fleet operations, alongside Gulf allies conducting daytime escorts, dominate current naval traffic, while Iranian IRGC forces target commercial vessels and expand blacklists. Oil market participants monitor these dynamics for potential further deployments by additional nations protecting energy routes or commercial interests through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuais países enviarão navios de guerra através do Estreito de Ormuz até 31 de dezembro?
Quais países enviarão navios de guerra através do Estreito de Ormuz até 31 de dezembro?
$48,772 Vol.
31 dez 2026
EUA
26%
Itália
20%
Reino Unido
12%
Austrália
18%
França
11%
Alemanha
9%
Grécia
11%
Países Baixos
5%
$48,772 Vol.
EUA
$17,938 Vol.
26%
Itália
$32 Vol.
20%
Reino Unido
$134 Vol.
12%
Austrália
$0 Vol.
18%
França
$14,142 Vol.
11%
Alemanha
$16 Vol.
9%
Grécia
$52 Vol.
11%
Países Baixos
$16,457 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating US-Iran tensions have triggered an active US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, with MH-60R helicopters and surface assets enforcing selective maritime denial as of mid-September 2026. This has spiked war-risk insurance premiums by 1.2–15 times baseline levels, reduced daily tanker transits well below pre-conflict averages of 130+, and supported Brent crude near $102 per barrel amid supply uncertainty. US Fifth Fleet operations, alongside Gulf allies conducting daytime escorts, dominate current naval traffic, while Iranian IRGC forces target commercial vessels and expand blacklists. Oil market participants monitor these dynamics for potential further deployments by additional nations protecting energy routes or commercial interests through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$48,772Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating US-Iran tensions have triggered an active US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, with MH-60R helicopters and surface assets enforcing selective maritime denial as of mid-September 2026. This has spiked war-risk insurance premiums by 1.2–15 times baseline levels, reduced daily tanker transits well below pre-conflict averages of 130+, and supported Brent crude near $102 per barrel amid supply uncertainty. US Fifth Fleet operations, alongside Gulf allies conducting daytime escorts, dominate current naval traffic, while Iranian IRGC forces target commercial vessels and expand blacklists. Oil market participants monitor these dynamics for potential further deployments by additional nations protecting energy routes or commercial interests through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$48,772Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating US-Iran tensions have triggered an active US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, with MH-60R helicopters and surface assets enforcing selective maritime denial as of mid-September 2026. This has spiked war-risk insurance premiums by 1.2–15 times baseline levels, reduced daily tanker transits well below pre-conflict averages of 130+, and supported Brent crude near $102 per barrel amid supply uncertainty. US Fifth Fleet operations, alongside Gulf allies conducting daytime escorts, dominate current naval traffic, while Iranian IRGC forces target commercial vessels and expand blacklists. Oil market participants monitor these dynamics for potential further deployments by additional nations protecting energy routes or commercial interests through year-end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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