State Senator Scott Wiener’s commanding position in recent polls and his endorsement by the California Democratic Party have anchored trader expectations that he will finish first in the June 2 top-two primary for California’s 11th congressional district. Multiple surveys conducted in late April and early May show Wiener capturing 40 percent or more support among likely voters across demographic groups, well ahead of Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan. Wiener’s long tenure in the state Senate, record on housing and LGBTQ issues, and early campaign launch following Nancy Pelosi’s retirement announcement have contributed to his broad backing. Chakrabarti’s self-funding and progressive profile, along with Chan’s labor endorsements and local supervisor experience, keep them competitive for second place but have not narrowed Wiener’s lead. The upcoming primary remains the key near-term catalyst for any further movement in probabilities.