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icon for Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?
Mundo·Canadá

Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?

icon for Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?
Mundo·Canadá

Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?

Sim

9% chance
Polymarket

$69,556 Vol.

Sim

9% chance
Polymarket

$69,556 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent court rulings have significantly undermined the petition drive for an Alberta independence referendum, with a May 2026 decision quashing the collection of over 300,000 signatures due to inadequate consultation with First Nations on treaty rights. Separatist organizers are appealing, yet polling from multiple firms consistently shows firm support for separation at just 27-28 percent, well below the threshold for passage. Premier Danielle Smith has faced internal pressure from her United Conservative Party base but has prioritized negotiations with Ottawa over committing to a vote. These procedural obstacles and limited public backing explain the strong trader consensus against independence occurring through any 2026 ballot.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$69,556
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent court rulings have significantly undermined the petition drive for an Alberta independence referendum, with a May 2026 decision quashing the collection of over 300,000 signatures due to inadequate consultation with First Nations on treaty rights. Separatist organizers are appealing, yet polling from multiple firms consistently shows firm support for separation at just 27-28 percent, well below the threshold for passage. Premier Danielle Smith has faced internal pressure from her United Conservative Party base but has prioritized negotiations with Ottawa over committing to a vote. These procedural obstacles and limited public backing explain the strong trader consensus against independence occurring through any 2026 ballot.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$69,556
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?" has generated $69.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?" is "Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?" at just 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.