Traders assign an 87.5% probability to "No" on a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting the absence of observable large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command restructuring needed for such an operation. Beijing continues prioritizing short-of-war coercion through military exercises around the island, diplomatic isolation of Taipei, and economic pressure, while recent PLA leadership changes and readiness gaps have tempered assessments of near-term capability. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang drills emphasize reservist integration, drone swarms, and supply resilience, and U.S. and allied commitments raise expected costs of direct action. Analysts highlight structural barriers, including high operational risks and preference for gradual unification campaigns, that sustain the market’s consensus against invasion within the resolution window.