Ongoing U.S. federal investigations into Gustavo Petro’s alleged ties to drug traffickers, including possible campaign donations and influence over extraditions, remain the central factor shaping trader views on the likelihood of formal charges by year-end. Prosecutors in Manhattan and Brooklyn, working with the DEA, have examined these matters since at least early 2026, designating Petro a priority target based on confidential sources, though the probes have stayed in preliminary stages without indictments. Petro’s departure from office in August 2026 removed any head-of-state immunity considerations. Recent reports of potential testimony from Ecuadorian figures and continued OFAC sanctions have kept attention on the cases, yet no verified developments in the past month have advanced them toward charges. Traders weigh the pace of these inquiries against historical patterns for similar international narcotics probes when assessing resolution odds.