Iran's Islamic Penal Code, enforced under Supreme Leader authority and reviewed by the Guardian Council, criminalizes all same-sex conduct with penalties up to execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with any recognition of same-sex marriage under current Sharia-based constitutional rules. No legislative proposals, Majlis debates, or reformist initiatives have surfaced in recent years, while ongoing enforcement and reports of persecution reinforce trader consensus at 98% probability of no change. This outlook aligns with the Islamic Republic's consistent stance on traditional marriage definitions and absence of institutional pathways for LGBTQ rights expansion. Only an improbable regime transition or major post-Khamenei leadership realignment before the December 2026 resolution deadline could introduce conditions for reconsideration.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
2% chance
$79,273 Vol.
$79,273 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Sim
2% chance
$79,273 Vol.
$79,273 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Islamic Penal Code, enforced under Supreme Leader authority and reviewed by the Guardian Council, criminalizes all same-sex conduct with penalties up to execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with any recognition of same-sex marriage under current Sharia-based constitutional rules. No legislative proposals, Majlis debates, or reformist initiatives have surfaced in recent years, while ongoing enforcement and reports of persecution reinforce trader consensus at 98% probability of no change. This outlook aligns with the Islamic Republic's consistent stance on traditional marriage definitions and absence of institutional pathways for LGBTQ rights expansion. Only an improbable regime transition or major post-Khamenei leadership realignment before the December 2026 resolution deadline could introduce conditions for reconsideration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ET
Volume
$79,273Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Islamic Penal Code, enforced under Supreme Leader authority and reviewed by the Guardian Council, criminalizes all same-sex conduct with penalties up to execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with any recognition of same-sex marriage under current Sharia-based constitutional rules. No legislative proposals, Majlis debates, or reformist initiatives have surfaced in recent years, while ongoing enforcement and reports of persecution reinforce trader consensus at 98% probability of no change. This outlook aligns with the Islamic Republic's consistent stance on traditional marriage definitions and absence of institutional pathways for LGBTQ rights expansion. Only an improbable regime transition or major post-Khamenei leadership realignment before the December 2026 resolution deadline could introduce conditions for reconsideration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$79,273Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Islamic Penal Code, enforced under Supreme Leader authority and reviewed by the Guardian Council, criminalizes all same-sex conduct with penalties up to execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with any recognition of same-sex marriage under current Sharia-based constitutional rules. No legislative proposals, Majlis debates, or reformist initiatives have surfaced in recent years, while ongoing enforcement and reports of persecution reinforce trader consensus at 98% probability of no change. This outlook aligns with the Islamic Republic's consistent stance on traditional marriage definitions and absence of institutional pathways for LGBTQ rights expansion. Only an improbable regime transition or major post-Khamenei leadership realignment before the December 2026 resolution deadline could introduce conditions for reconsideration.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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