The high implied probability against a tariff dividend by June 30 stems primarily from the absence of any formal executive action or congressional legislation since President Trump's November 2025 announcement of $2,000 payments funded by tariff revenue. A February Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff measures imposed under emergency authorities, directing refunds through the Customs and Border Protection CAPE system to importers and brokers rather than to households. Democratic-backed rebate bills introduced in Congress have gained no traction, and administration statements have shifted focus to deficit reduction without new implementation steps. With only weeks remaining before the resolution date, the lack of concrete progress has solidified trader consensus around the outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$11,462 Vol.
$11,462 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$11,462 Vol.
$11,462 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high implied probability against a tariff dividend by June 30 stems primarily from the absence of any formal executive action or congressional legislation since President Trump's November 2025 announcement of $2,000 payments funded by tariff revenue. A February Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff measures imposed under emergency authorities, directing refunds through the Customs and Border Protection CAPE system to importers and brokers rather than to households. Democratic-backed rebate bills introduced in Congress have gained no traction, and administration statements have shifted focus to deficit reduction without new implementation steps. With only weeks remaining before the resolution date, the lack of concrete progress has solidified trader consensus around the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$11,462Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The high implied probability against a tariff dividend by June 30 stems primarily from the absence of any formal executive action or congressional legislation since President Trump's November 2025 announcement of $2,000 payments funded by tariff revenue. A February Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff measures imposed under emergency authorities, directing refunds through the Customs and Border Protection CAPE system to importers and brokers rather than to households. Democratic-backed rebate bills introduced in Congress have gained no traction, and administration statements have shifted focus to deficit reduction without new implementation steps. With only weeks remaining before the resolution date, the lack of concrete progress has solidified trader consensus around the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,462Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The high implied probability against a tariff dividend by June 30 stems primarily from the absence of any formal executive action or congressional legislation since President Trump's November 2025 announcement of $2,000 payments funded by tariff revenue. A February Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff measures imposed under emergency authorities, directing refunds through the Customs and Border Protection CAPE system to importers and brokers rather than to households. Democratic-backed rebate bills introduced in Congress have gained no traction, and administration statements have shifted focus to deficit reduction without new implementation steps. With only weeks remaining before the resolution date, the lack of concrete progress has solidified trader consensus around the outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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