Persistent security risks from Houthi militia in the Red Sea, intensified by the 2026 Iran conflict and related missile threats, have kept major container carriers rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope rather than transiting the Suez Canal. January 2026 recorded only 150 container ship passages, the lowest January total in a decade and well below pre-crisis monthly averages near 500–600, with early 2026 data showing continued year-over-year declines amid moderate threat levels at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Carriers cite crew safety and insurance costs as primary barriers, and recent carrier statements indicate phased returns remain shelved until the regional situation stabilizes. Traders assign near-certainty to fewer than 2,000 transits in H1 2026 because no credible de-escalation has materialized. A sustained ceasefire, verified safe passages by multiple lines, or abrupt regional diplomatic breakthroughs remain the principal scenarios that could still lift volumes enough to alter the outcome before June 30.