Sam Liccardo’s decisive primary victory on June 2, 2026, with over 75 percent of the vote, locked in the Democratic nomination against Republican Peter Soulé in California’s 16th district. The seat’s established Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration patterns and prior election margins, underpins trader consensus that assigns the Democratic nominee a commanding implied probability near 95 percent. Incumbency advantages, including name recognition and fundraising capacity, further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November general election. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain limited but include a major personal or ethical controversy affecting the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican surge in turnout, or unforeseen shifts in local voter mobilization within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-16 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-16 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$96,024 Объем
$96,024 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
95%
Республиканская партия
6%
$96,024 Объем
$96,024 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$51,871 Объем
95%
Республиканская партия
$44,153 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo’s decisive primary victory on June 2, 2026, with over 75 percent of the vote, locked in the Democratic nomination against Republican Peter Soulé in California’s 16th district. The seat’s established Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration patterns and prior election margins, underpins trader consensus that assigns the Democratic nominee a commanding implied probability near 95 percent. Incumbency advantages, including name recognition and fundraising capacity, further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November general election. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain limited but include a major personal or ethical controversy affecting the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican surge in turnout, or unforeseen shifts in local voter mobilization within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$96,024Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo’s decisive primary victory on June 2, 2026, with over 75 percent of the vote, locked in the Democratic nomination against Republican Peter Soulé in California’s 16th district. The seat’s established Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration patterns and prior election margins, underpins trader consensus that assigns the Democratic nominee a commanding implied probability near 95 percent. Incumbency advantages, including name recognition and fundraising capacity, further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November general election. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain limited but include a major personal or ethical controversy affecting the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican surge in turnout, or unforeseen shifts in local voter mobilization within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$96,024Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Sam Liccardo’s decisive primary victory on June 2, 2026, with over 75 percent of the vote, locked in the Democratic nomination against Republican Peter Soulé in California’s 16th district. The seat’s established Democratic lean, reflected in voter registration patterns and prior election margins, underpins trader consensus that assigns the Democratic nominee a commanding implied probability near 95 percent. Incumbency advantages, including name recognition and fundraising capacity, further reinforce this positioning ahead of the November general election. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome remain limited but include a major personal or ethical controversy affecting the incumbent, an unusually strong national Republican surge in turnout, or unforeseen shifts in local voter mobilization within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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