Paul Gosar, the Republican incumbent, secured his party's nomination in the July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district and faces Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November general election. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 or greater partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates including Gosar and former President Trump, underpins the market's 94.5% Republican probability. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. Low Democratic fundraising and visibility, combined with the absence of competitive primary challenges or recent polling shifts, reinforce trader consensus. Late developments such as a major candidate withdrawal, scandal, or unexpected national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals unlikely before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоAZ-09 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
AZ-09 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$25,634 Объем
$25,634 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
95%
Демократическая партия
4%
$25,634 Объем
$25,634 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканская партия
$10,192 Объем
95%
Демократическая партия
$15,442 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Paul Gosar, the Republican incumbent, secured his party's nomination in the July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district and faces Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November general election. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 or greater partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates including Gosar and former President Trump, underpins the market's 94.5% Republican probability. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. Low Democratic fundraising and visibility, combined with the absence of competitive primary challenges or recent polling shifts, reinforce trader consensus. Late developments such as a major candidate withdrawal, scandal, or unexpected national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals unlikely before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$25,634Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Paul Gosar, the Republican incumbent, secured his party's nomination in the July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district and faces Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November general election. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 or greater partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates including Gosar and former President Trump, underpins the market's 94.5% Republican probability. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. Low Democratic fundraising and visibility, combined with the absence of competitive primary challenges or recent polling shifts, reinforce trader consensus. Late developments such as a major candidate withdrawal, scandal, or unexpected national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals unlikely before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$25,634Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Paul Gosar, the Republican incumbent, secured his party's nomination in the July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district and faces Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November general election. The district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+15 or greater partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates including Gosar and former President Trump, underpins the market's 94.5% Republican probability. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. Low Democratic fundraising and visibility, combined with the absence of competitive primary challenges or recent polling shifts, reinforce trader consensus. Late developments such as a major candidate withdrawal, scandal, or unexpected national partisan swing could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such reversals unlikely before Election Day.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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