Recent July Core PCE data printed at 0.2% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, aligning with consensus and leaving the 12-month rate steady above the Fed’s 2% target for the 65th consecutive month amid lingering effects from earlier energy price pressures. This outcome, coupled with firmer personal income and spending figures, has kept monetary policy expectations balanced ahead of the September FOMC, with futures implying roughly 40% odds of a near-term rate hike. For the August reading, trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly between 0.2% and 0.3%, reflecting uncertainty over whether services inflation and housing costs will moderate or reaccelerate. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI and employment reports, which could shift the balance by clarifying the trajectory of underlying price pressures and labor market conditions before the September 30 release.