Recent numerical weather prediction ensembles from the UK Met Office, BBC, and other agencies converge on a daytime maximum near 19°C for Warsaw on June 16 under westerly flow, moderate winds of 14–15 mph, and periods of drizzle or sprinkles with persistent cloud cover. This pattern, driven by a broad trough and Atlantic air advection, suppresses typical June radiative heating and caps afternoon temperatures below the seasonal average of 22–23°C. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 18–20°C because small forecast shifts—such as earlier clearing, reduced precipitation, or slight wind backing—can alter peak readings by 1–2°C within the uncertainty range of current model guidance. Official updates from these agencies over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact threshold.