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icon for Сколько сокращений ставки ФРС в 2026 году?
Экономика·Награды 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Сколько сокращений ставки ФРС в 2026 году?

icon for Сколько сокращений ставки ФРС в 2026 году?
Экономика·Награды 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Сколько сокращений ставки ФРС в 2026 году?

0 (0 бпс) 96.0%

1 (25 базисных пунктов) 1.1%

2 (50 б.п.) <1%

3 (75 б.п.) <1%

Polymarket

$53,126,739 Объем

0 (0 бпс) 96.0%

1 (25 базисных пунктов) 1.1%

2 (50 б.п.) <1%

3 (75 б.п.) <1%

Polymarket

$53,126,739 Объем

0 (0 бпс)

$8,470,511 Объем

96%

1 (25 базисных пунктов)

$3,263,877 Объем

1%

2 (50 б.п.)

$3,241,788 Объем

1%

3 (75 б.п.)

$2,928,629 Объем

<1%

4 (100 базисных пунктов)

$2,729,849 Объем

<1%

5 (125 б.п.)

$2,988,671 Объем

<1%

6 (150 б.п.)

$4,222,076 Объем

<1%

7 (175 б.п.)

$3,523,869 Объем

<1%

8 (200 базисных пунктов)

$3,292,613 Объем

<1%

9 (225 б.п.)

$4,286,511 Объем

<1%

10 (250 базисных пунктов)

$4,951,980 Объем

<1%

11 (275 б.п.)

$5,268,834 Объем

<1%

12+ (300+ б.п.)

$3,957,532 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hawkish shifts by the Federal Reserve, including the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range, underpin the 96% market-implied probability of zero rate cuts for the full year. Elevated inflation—August 2026 CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures at 2.4%—combined with upgraded PCE projections at 3.7% for 2026, has prompted policymakers to signal additional tightening. The updated dot plot shows a 4.1% median federal funds rate endpoint for year-end 2026, reflecting 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one more hike. Labor market resilience, with unemployment projected near 4.1%, further supports holding policy steady rather than easing. Key upcoming catalysts include the October 28 FOMC meeting and September CPI release, where sustained price pressures could reinforce this consensus while sharper disinflation might introduce limited scope for a late-year pivot.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$53,126,739
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent hawkish shifts by the Federal Reserve, including the September 16, 2026, 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range, underpin the 96% market-implied probability of zero rate cuts for the full year. Elevated inflation—August 2026 CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, with core measures at 2.4%—combined with upgraded PCE projections at 3.7% for 2026, has prompted policymakers to signal additional tightening. The updated dot plot shows a 4.1% median federal funds rate endpoint for year-end 2026, reflecting 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one more hike. Labor market resilience, with unemployment projected near 4.1%, further supports holding policy steady rather than easing. Key upcoming catalysts include the October 28 FOMC meeting and September CPI release, where sustained price pressures could reinforce this consensus while sharper disinflation might introduce limited scope for a late-year pivot.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Объем
$53,126,739
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...

Связанные

icon for Произойдут ли два повышения ставки ФРС в 2026 году?

Произойдут ли два повышения ставки ФРС в 2026 году?

61%
Да
icon for Снижение ставки ФРС к заседанию в июле 2027 года?

Снижение ставки ФРС к заседанию в июле 2027 года?

48%
Да
icon for Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

68%

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Сколько сокращений ставки ФРС в 2026 году?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 13 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «0 (0 бпс)» с 96%, за ним следует «1 (25 базисных пунктов)» с 1%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 96¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 96%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Сколько сокращений ставки ФРС в 2026 году?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $53.1 million с момента запуска рынка Sep 29, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Сколько сокращений ставки ФРС в 2026 году?», просмотри 13 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Сколько сокращений ставки ФРС в 2026 году?» — «0 (0 бпс)» с 96%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 96%. Следующий ближайший исход — «1 (25 базисных пунктов)» с 1%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Сколько сокращений ставки ФРС в 2026 году?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.