Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan continue to shape prospects for a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran. A conditional ceasefire took effect in April 2026 following earlier US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, yet core disputes persist over Iran's nuclear enrichment program, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has submitted revised proposals through Pakistani channels that defer major concessions on these issues, while US officials including President Trump have signaled dissatisfaction and warned of renewed military action if deadlines slip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasized the need to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities. Recent reports of potential US-Israel escalation have reinforced trader caution ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$936,702 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
May 31
3%
30 июня
13%
$936,702 Объем
May 31
$281,565 Объем
3%
30 июня
$340,522 Объем
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan continue to shape prospects for a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran. A conditional ceasefire took effect in April 2026 following earlier US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, yet core disputes persist over Iran's nuclear enrichment program, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has submitted revised proposals through Pakistani channels that defer major concessions on these issues, while US officials including President Trump have signaled dissatisfaction and warned of renewed military action if deadlines slip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasized the need to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities. Recent reports of potential US-Israel escalation have reinforced trader caution ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Объем
$936,702Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan continue to shape prospects for a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran. A conditional ceasefire took effect in April 2026 following earlier US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, yet core disputes persist over Iran's nuclear enrichment program, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has submitted revised proposals through Pakistani channels that defer major concessions on these issues, while US officials including President Trump have signaled dissatisfaction and warned of renewed military action if deadlines slip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasized the need to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities. Recent reports of potential US-Israel escalation have reinforced trader caution ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$936,702Дата окончания
31 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan continue to shape prospects for a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran. A conditional ceasefire took effect in April 2026 following earlier US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, yet core disputes persist over Iran's nuclear enrichment program, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and management of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has submitted revised proposals through Pakistani channels that defer major concessions on these issues, while US officials including President Trump have signaled dissatisfaction and warned of renewed military action if deadlines slip. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasized the need to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities. Recent reports of potential US-Israel escalation have reinforced trader caution ahead of the June 30, 2026 resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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