**Official observations from the primary reference station (LaGuardia/KLGA) placed the June 11, 2026, minimum temperature squarely in the 74–75 °F range, producing the market’s 97.6 % consensus on that bin.** A multi-day heat wave featuring southerly flow, elevated dew points, and reduced nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies prevented temperatures from dropping into the low 70s or below, consistent with National Weather Service and NOAA model guidance issued in the final 24–48 hours. Historical June overnight lows in NYC average near 63 °F, so this outcome represented a strong positive anomaly driven by the synoptic pattern. Only an unexpected post-event data revision or station discrepancy could realistically shift resolution outside 74–75 °F, an exceedingly low-probability scenario given the stability of climatological reports.