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icon for Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-25
Политика·Выборы 4 ноября

Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-25

icon for Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-25
Политика·Выборы 4 ноября

Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-25

Polymarket

$33,113 Объем

Polymarket

$33,113 Объем

Демократическая партия

$22,758 Объем

96%

Республиканская партия

$10,354 Объем

3%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle's strong primary win in June 2026, combined with the district's consistent Democratic lean and his substantial fundraising edge, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic hold in the November general election. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as solidly or safely Democratic, reflecting Morelle's prior victories and the Republican nominee's limited resources. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets prices in these structural advantages. A Republican upset would require an unforeseen national midterm surge, a major scandal or health event affecting Morelle, or a sharp shift in local turnout patterns before Election Day.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$33,113
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Joseph Morelle's strong primary win in June 2026, combined with the district's consistent Democratic lean and his substantial fundraising edge, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic hold in the November general election. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as solidly or safely Democratic, reflecting Morelle's prior victories and the Republican nominee's limited resources. The wisdom of crowds in prediction markets prices in these structural advantages. A Republican upset would require an unforeseen national midterm surge, a major scandal or health event affecting Morelle, or a sharp shift in local turnout patterns before Election Day.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-25 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$33,113
Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x2F5e3684c...

Связанные

icon for Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу NY-24?

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу NY-24?

93%
Да
icon for Победит ли Республиканская партия на выборах в Палату представителей по округу TX-25?

Победит ли Республиканская партия на выборах в Палату представителей по округу TX-25?

92%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу NY-23?

Выиграет ли Республиканская партия место в Палате представителей по округу NY-23?

92%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-25» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Демократическая партия» с 96%, за ним следует «Республиканская партия» с 3%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 96¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 96%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-25» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $33.1K с момента запуска рынка Jan 28, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-25», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-25» — «Демократическая партия» с 96%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 96%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Республиканская партия» с 3%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Победитель выборов в Палату представителей NY-25» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.