Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security apparatus and political institutions amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict, with no verified coup attempts or organized elite challenges emerging through mid-September 2026. Heightened Kremlin security measures, including expanded surveillance and reduced public appearances, reflect earlier elite tensions and reported concerns over military influence, yet these have not produced coordinated action. Declining approval ratings tied to economic strains and drone strikes on infrastructure have prompted limited internal criticism and a recent security-service reshuffle, but United Russia’s expected dominance in the September Duma elections underscores regime cohesion. Traders assign only a 5.5% implied probability to a coup attempt this year, consistent with the system’s demonstrated resilience following the 2023 Prigozhin episode and the absence of conditions enabling rapid leadership change.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоRussia coup attempt in 2026?
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
6% вероятность
$131,551 Объем
$131,551 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
6% вероятность
$131,551 Объем
$131,551 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security apparatus and political institutions amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict, with no verified coup attempts or organized elite challenges emerging through mid-September 2026. Heightened Kremlin security measures, including expanded surveillance and reduced public appearances, reflect earlier elite tensions and reported concerns over military influence, yet these have not produced coordinated action. Declining approval ratings tied to economic strains and drone strikes on infrastructure have prompted limited internal criticism and a recent security-service reshuffle, but United Russia’s expected dominance in the September Duma elections underscores regime cohesion. Traders assign only a 5.5% implied probability to a coup attempt this year, consistent with the system’s demonstrated resilience following the 2023 Prigozhin episode and the absence of conditions enabling rapid leadership change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Объем
$131,551Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security apparatus and political institutions amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict, with no verified coup attempts or organized elite challenges emerging through mid-September 2026. Heightened Kremlin security measures, including expanded surveillance and reduced public appearances, reflect earlier elite tensions and reported concerns over military influence, yet these have not produced coordinated action. Declining approval ratings tied to economic strains and drone strikes on infrastructure have prompted limited internal criticism and a recent security-service reshuffle, but United Russia’s expected dominance in the September Duma elections underscores regime cohesion. Traders assign only a 5.5% implied probability to a coup attempt this year, consistent with the system’s demonstrated resilience following the 2023 Prigozhin episode and the absence of conditions enabling rapid leadership change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$131,551Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security apparatus and political institutions amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict, with no verified coup attempts or organized elite challenges emerging through mid-September 2026. Heightened Kremlin security measures, including expanded surveillance and reduced public appearances, reflect earlier elite tensions and reported concerns over military influence, yet these have not produced coordinated action. Declining approval ratings tied to economic strains and drone strikes on infrastructure have prompted limited internal criticism and a recent security-service reshuffle, but United Russia’s expected dominance in the September Duma elections underscores regime cohesion. Traders assign only a 5.5% implied probability to a coup attempt this year, consistent with the system’s demonstrated resilience following the 2023 Prigozhin episode and the absence of conditions enabling rapid leadership change.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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