Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds an overwhelming lead in early 2026 polling across multiple firms, including Datafolha and Genial/Quaest, often reaching or exceeding levels that could produce a first-round victory on October 4. This positioning reflects sustained voter support for his administration amid a polarized contest with Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party as the primary challenger. Limited traction for alternatives such as Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, or Márcio França has narrowed the field, reducing prospects for a competitive runoff. Trader consensus aligns with these surveys while factoring in the state’s electoral rules that favor strong incumbents with broad coalitions. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, coalition realignments, or turnout patterns in key municipalities before voting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоTarcísio de Freitas 82%
Ким Катагири 9.8%
Fernando Haddad 8.5%
Erika Hilton 1.9%
$26,368 Объем
$26,368 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Tarcísio de Freitas
82%
Ким Катагири
10%
Fernando Haddad
9%
Erika Hilton
2%
Márcio França
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 82%
Ким Катагири 9.8%
Fernando Haddad 8.5%
Erika Hilton 1.9%
$26,368 Объем
$26,368 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Tarcísio de Freitas
$11,939 Объем
82%
Ким Катагири
$4,196 Объем
10%
Fernando Haddad
$3,980 Объем
9%
Erika Hilton
$3,599 Объем
2%
Márcio França
$2,654 Объем
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds an overwhelming lead in early 2026 polling across multiple firms, including Datafolha and Genial/Quaest, often reaching or exceeding levels that could produce a first-round victory on October 4. This positioning reflects sustained voter support for his administration amid a polarized contest with Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party as the primary challenger. Limited traction for alternatives such as Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, or Márcio França has narrowed the field, reducing prospects for a competitive runoff. Trader consensus aligns with these surveys while factoring in the state’s electoral rules that favor strong incumbents with broad coalitions. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, coalition realignments, or turnout patterns in key municipalities before voting.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Объем
$26,368Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds an overwhelming lead in early 2026 polling across multiple firms, including Datafolha and Genial/Quaest, often reaching or exceeding levels that could produce a first-round victory on October 4. This positioning reflects sustained voter support for his administration amid a polarized contest with Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party as the primary challenger. Limited traction for alternatives such as Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, or Márcio França has narrowed the field, reducing prospects for a competitive runoff. Trader consensus aligns with these surveys while factoring in the state’s electoral rules that favor strong incumbents with broad coalitions. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, coalition realignments, or turnout patterns in key municipalities before voting.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$26,368Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds an overwhelming lead in early 2026 polling across multiple firms, including Datafolha and Genial/Quaest, often reaching or exceeding levels that could produce a first-round victory on October 4. This positioning reflects sustained voter support for his administration amid a polarized contest with Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party as the primary challenger. Limited traction for alternatives such as Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, or Márcio França has narrowed the field, reducing prospects for a competitive runoff. Trader consensus aligns with these surveys while factoring in the state’s electoral rules that favor strong incumbents with broad coalitions. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments, coalition realignments, or turnout patterns in key municipalities before voting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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