Incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in São Paulo’s October 2026 gubernatorial race, with recent polls from firms including Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and Datafolha showing him leading first-round intentions by double-digit margins and approaching a potential outright majority. His established record in infrastructure and fiscal management, combined with a right-wing coalition anchored by the Republicanos and PSD, underpins broad voter consolidation ahead of the first-round vote. Fernando Haddad, positioned as the primary Workers’ Party challenger, trails consistently in head-to-head scenarios, while exploratory bids by Kim Kataguiri and others register single-digit support and remain unconfirmed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these polling trends and the structural advantages of incumbency four months before ballots open.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоTarcísio de Freitas 82%
Ким Катагири 9.7%
Fernando Haddad 8.5%
Erika Hilton 1.9%
$26,317 Объем
$26,317 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Tarcísio de Freitas
82%
Ким Катагири
10%
Fernando Haddad
9%
Erika Hilton
2%
Márcio França
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 82%
Ким Катагири 9.7%
Fernando Haddad 8.5%
Erika Hilton 1.9%
$26,317 Объем
$26,317 Объем
4 окт. 2026 г.
Tarcísio de Freitas
$11,929 Объем
82%
Ким Катагири
$4,186 Объем
10%
Fernando Haddad
$3,970 Объем
9%
Erika Hilton
$3,589 Объем
2%
Márcio França
$2,644 Объем
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in São Paulo’s October 2026 gubernatorial race, with recent polls from firms including Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and Datafolha showing him leading first-round intentions by double-digit margins and approaching a potential outright majority. His established record in infrastructure and fiscal management, combined with a right-wing coalition anchored by the Republicanos and PSD, underpins broad voter consolidation ahead of the first-round vote. Fernando Haddad, positioned as the primary Workers’ Party challenger, trails consistently in head-to-head scenarios, while exploratory bids by Kim Kataguiri and others register single-digit support and remain unconfirmed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these polling trends and the structural advantages of incumbency four months before ballots open.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Объем
$26,317Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in São Paulo’s October 2026 gubernatorial race, with recent polls from firms including Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and Datafolha showing him leading first-round intentions by double-digit margins and approaching a potential outright majority. His established record in infrastructure and fiscal management, combined with a right-wing coalition anchored by the Republicanos and PSD, underpins broad voter consolidation ahead of the first-round vote. Fernando Haddad, positioned as the primary Workers’ Party challenger, trails consistently in head-to-head scenarios, while exploratory bids by Kim Kataguiri and others register single-digit support and remain unconfirmed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these polling trends and the structural advantages of incumbency four months before ballots open.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$26,317Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding position in São Paulo’s October 2026 gubernatorial race, with recent polls from firms including Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and Datafolha showing him leading first-round intentions by double-digit margins and approaching a potential outright majority. His established record in infrastructure and fiscal management, combined with a right-wing coalition anchored by the Republicanos and PSD, underpins broad voter consolidation ahead of the first-round vote. Fernando Haddad, positioned as the primary Workers’ Party challenger, trails consistently in head-to-head scenarios, while exploratory bids by Kim Kataguiri and others register single-digit support and remain unconfirmed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these polling trends and the structural advantages of incumbency four months before ballots open.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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