The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act established substantial borrowing authority at $41.1 trillion, with projections indicating the limit will likely be approached only in mid-to-late 2027. Congress has adjusted the statutory limit more than 100 times since World War II, consistently using reconciliation, suspensions, or increases to avert default, while Treasury extraordinary measures routinely extend timelines. These patterns, alongside strong institutional incentives to preserve Treasury market stability and credit ratings, underpin trader consensus at 96.9% against default by end-2027. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include extended 2027 negotiations amid partisan divisions or fiscal pressures, though precedent favors resolution before any X-date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДефолты США по долгам к 2027 году?
Дефолты США по долгам к 2027 году?
Да
3% вероятность
$16,303 Объем
$16,303 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$16,303 Объем
$16,303 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act established substantial borrowing authority at $41.1 trillion, with projections indicating the limit will likely be approached only in mid-to-late 2027. Congress has adjusted the statutory limit more than 100 times since World War II, consistently using reconciliation, suspensions, or increases to avert default, while Treasury extraordinary measures routinely extend timelines. These patterns, alongside strong institutional incentives to preserve Treasury market stability and credit ratings, underpin trader consensus at 96.9% against default by end-2027. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include extended 2027 negotiations amid partisan divisions or fiscal pressures, though precedent favors resolution before any X-date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Объем
$16,303Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act established substantial borrowing authority at $41.1 trillion, with projections indicating the limit will likely be approached only in mid-to-late 2027. Congress has adjusted the statutory limit more than 100 times since World War II, consistently using reconciliation, suspensions, or increases to avert default, while Treasury extraordinary measures routinely extend timelines. These patterns, alongside strong institutional incentives to preserve Treasury market stability and credit ratings, underpin trader consensus at 96.9% against default by end-2027. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include extended 2027 negotiations amid partisan divisions or fiscal pressures, though precedent favors resolution before any X-date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Объем
$16,303Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act established substantial borrowing authority at $41.1 trillion, with projections indicating the limit will likely be approached only in mid-to-late 2027. Congress has adjusted the statutory limit more than 100 times since World War II, consistently using reconciliation, suspensions, or increases to avert default, while Treasury extraordinary measures routinely extend timelines. These patterns, alongside strong institutional incentives to preserve Treasury market stability and credit ratings, underpin trader consensus at 96.9% against default by end-2027. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include extended 2027 negotiations amid partisan divisions or fiscal pressures, though precedent favors resolution before any X-date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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