Traders assign near-certain odds against a US default by 2027, driven by Congress's consistent record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling through bipartisan legislation before statutory limits trigger missed payments. Recent sessions have featured continuing resolutions and appropriations deals that avert immediate crises, supported by Treasury use of extraordinary measures and Federal Reserve backstops that extend runway during negotiations. Institutional incentives remain strong, as default would sharply raise borrowing costs, disrupt markets, and trigger automatic spending cuts under existing statutes. Even in divided government, historical precedent shows eventual passage rather than breach. Residual risks include an unprecedented multi-month standoff amid acute polarization or simultaneous fiscal shocks that exhaust all procedural options before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДефолты США по долгам к 2027 году?
Дефолты США по долгам к 2027 году?
Да
3% вероятность
$16,303 Объем
$16,303 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$16,303 Объем
$16,303 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign near-certain odds against a US default by 2027, driven by Congress's consistent record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling through bipartisan legislation before statutory limits trigger missed payments. Recent sessions have featured continuing resolutions and appropriations deals that avert immediate crises, supported by Treasury use of extraordinary measures and Federal Reserve backstops that extend runway during negotiations. Institutional incentives remain strong, as default would sharply raise borrowing costs, disrupt markets, and trigger automatic spending cuts under existing statutes. Even in divided government, historical precedent shows eventual passage rather than breach. Residual risks include an unprecedented multi-month standoff amid acute polarization or simultaneous fiscal shocks that exhaust all procedural options before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Объем
$16,303Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign near-certain odds against a US default by 2027, driven by Congress's consistent record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling through bipartisan legislation before statutory limits trigger missed payments. Recent sessions have featured continuing resolutions and appropriations deals that avert immediate crises, supported by Treasury use of extraordinary measures and Federal Reserve backstops that extend runway during negotiations. Institutional incentives remain strong, as default would sharply raise borrowing costs, disrupt markets, and trigger automatic spending cuts under existing statutes. Even in divided government, historical precedent shows eventual passage rather than breach. Residual risks include an unprecedented multi-month standoff amid acute polarization or simultaneous fiscal shocks that exhaust all procedural options before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Объем
$16,303Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign near-certain odds against a US default by 2027, driven by Congress's consistent record of raising or suspending the debt ceiling through bipartisan legislation before statutory limits trigger missed payments. Recent sessions have featured continuing resolutions and appropriations deals that avert immediate crises, supported by Treasury use of extraordinary measures and Federal Reserve backstops that extend runway during negotiations. Institutional incentives remain strong, as default would sharply raise borrowing costs, disrupt markets, and trigger automatic spending cuts under existing statutes. Even in divided government, historical precedent shows eventual passage rather than breach. Residual risks include an unprecedented multi-month standoff amid acute polarization or simultaneous fiscal shocks that exhaust all procedural options before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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