The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation legislation has set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with independent projections indicating the Treasury will reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, extending the effective timeline past the end of 2027. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent “No” probability draws from this schedule together with the established record of more than 100 congressional actions since World War II that have raised or suspended the limit without permitting a payment default on Treasury obligations. Institutional incentives to protect U.S. credit standing and avoid severe economic disruption reinforce the positioning. Residual risks that could still alter the outcome include an unusually protracted partisan impasse that exhausts cash reserves and measures before year-end 2027 or an unforeseen fiscal shock that sharply accelerates the X-date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$15,594 Объем
$15,594 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
$15,594 Объем
$15,594 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation legislation has set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with independent projections indicating the Treasury will reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, extending the effective timeline past the end of 2027. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent “No” probability draws from this schedule together with the established record of more than 100 congressional actions since World War II that have raised or suspended the limit without permitting a payment default on Treasury obligations. Institutional incentives to protect U.S. credit standing and avoid severe economic disruption reinforce the positioning. Residual risks that could still alter the outcome include an unusually protracted partisan impasse that exhausts cash reserves and measures before year-end 2027 or an unforeseen fiscal shock that sharply accelerates the X-date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Объем
$15,594Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation legislation has set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with independent projections indicating the Treasury will reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, extending the effective timeline past the end of 2027. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent “No” probability draws from this schedule together with the established record of more than 100 congressional actions since World War II that have raised or suspended the limit without permitting a payment default on Treasury obligations. Institutional incentives to protect U.S. credit standing and avoid severe economic disruption reinforce the positioning. Residual risks that could still alter the outcome include an unusually protracted partisan impasse that exhausts cash reserves and measures before year-end 2027 or an unforeseen fiscal shock that sharply accelerates the X-date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Объем
$15,594Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted through the 2025 reconciliation legislation has set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with independent projections indicating the Treasury will reach that threshold between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures are then expected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, extending the effective timeline past the end of 2027. Trader consensus reflected in the 96 percent “No” probability draws from this schedule together with the established record of more than 100 congressional actions since World War II that have raised or suspended the limit without permitting a payment default on Treasury obligations. Institutional incentives to protect U.S. credit standing and avoid severe economic disruption reinforce the positioning. Residual risks that could still alter the outcome include an unusually protracted partisan impasse that exhausts cash reserves and measures before year-end 2027 or an unforeseen fiscal shock that sharply accelerates the X-date.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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